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Política·Inglaterra

O próximo primeiro-ministro do Reino Unido em 2026?

Market icon
Política·Inglaterra

O próximo primeiro-ministro do Reino Unido em 2026?

Nenhum próximo PM em 2026 37%

Angela Rayner 24%

Ed Miliband 9.9%

Nigel Farage 8.5%

Polymarket

$3,680,924 Vol.

Nenhum próximo PM em 2026 37%

Angela Rayner 24%

Ed Miliband 9.9%

Nigel Farage 8.5%

Polymarket

$3,680,924 Vol.

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Nenhum próximo PM em 2026

$122,291 Vol.

37%

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Angela Rayner

$254,830 Vol.

24%

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Ed Miliband

$173,981 Vol.

10%

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Nigel Farage

$553,960 Vol.

9%

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Wes Streeting

$60,993 Vol.

6%

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Yvette Cooper

$153,879 Vol.

4%

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Rupert Lowe

$567,155 Vol.

4%

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Andy Burnham

$288,416 Vol.

4%

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Shabana Mahmood

$198,264 Vol.

2%

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Al Carns

$102,504 Vol.

1%

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Lucy Powell

$0 Vol.

1%

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David Lammy

$96,613 Vol.

1%

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Rachel Reeves

$352,948 Vol.

<1%

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Kemi Badenoch

$109,908 Vol.

<1%

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Darren Jones

$122,955 Vol.

<1%

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Boris Johnson

$113,282 Vol.

<1%

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Ed Davey

$82,277 Vol.

<1%

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Bridget Phillipson

$57,729 Vol.

<1%

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Robert Jenrick

$136,973 Vol.

<1%

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James Cleverly

$131,966 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects skepticism about a UK prime ministerial change in 2026, with no new PM leading at 36.5% amid Keir Starmer's persistent low approval ratings—net -48% in recent polls—and Labour's ongoing leadership crisis, despite no formal challenge or snap election trigger. Angela Rayner's 23.5% positioning stems from her March 17 warning that Labour is "running out of time" under Starmer and an explosive March 18 speech reigniting successor speculation, bolstered by earlier reports of her £1m war chest for a potential contest. Ed Miliband's 10.1% and Nigel Farage's 8.6% gain traction from cabinet prominence and Reform UK's poll surge, including Farage topping preferred PM surveys at 26%, though a general election remains distant until 2029 absent a no-confidence vote.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects skepticism about a UK prime ministerial change in 2026, with no new PM leading at 36.5% amid Keir Starmer's persistent low approval ratings—net -48% in recent polls—and Labour's ongoing leadership crisis, despite no formal challenge or snap election trigger. Angela Rayner's 23.5% positioning stems from her March 17 warning that Labour is "running out of time" under Starmer and an explosive March 18 speech reigniting successor speculation, bolstered by earlier reports of her £1m war chest for a potential contest. Ed Miliband's 10.1% and Nigel Farage's 8.6% gain traction from cabinet prominence and Reform UK's poll surge, including Farage topping preferred PM surveys at 26%, though a general election remains distant until 2029 absent a no-confidence vote.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects skepticism about a UK prime ministerial change in 2026, with no new PM leading at 36.5% amid Keir Starmer's persistent low approval ratings—net -48% in recent polls—and Labour's ongoing leadership crisis, despite no formal challenge or snap election trigger. Angela Rayner's 23.5% positioning stems from her March 17 warning that Labour is "running out of time" under Starmer and an explosive March 18 speech reigniting successor speculation, bolstered by earlier reports of her £1m war chest for a potential contest. Ed Miliband's 10.1% and Nigel Farage's 8.6% gain traction from cabinet prominence and Reform UK's poll surge, including Farage topping preferred PM surveys at 26%, though a general election remains distant until 2029 absent a no-confidence vote.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects skepticism about a UK prime ministerial change in 2026, with no new PM leading at 36.5% amid Keir Starmer's persistent low approval ratings—net -48% in recent polls—and Labour's ongoing leadership crisis, despite no formal challenge or snap election trigger. Angela Rayner's 23.5% positioning stems from her March 17 warning that Labour is "running out of time" under Starmer and an explosive March 18 speech reigniting successor speculation, bolstered by earlier reports of her £1m war chest for a potential contest. Ed Miliband's 10.1% and Nigel Farage's 8.6% gain traction from cabinet prominence and Reform UK's poll surge, including Farage topping preferred PM surveys at 26%, though a general election remains distant until 2029 absent a no-confidence vote.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"O próximo primeiro-ministro do Reino Unido em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Nenhum próximo PM em 2026" at 37%, followed by "Angela Rayner" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "O próximo primeiro-ministro do Reino Unido em 2026?" has generated $3.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "O próximo primeiro-ministro do Reino Unido em 2026?," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "O próximo primeiro-ministro do Reino Unido em 2026?" is "Nenhum próximo PM em 2026" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Angela Rayner" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "O próximo primeiro-ministro do Reino Unido em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.