Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts point to a midday peak high of 15-17°C in Ankara on March 27, driving the tight trader consensus with 25.5% odds on 15°C and 16°C, closely trailed by 17°C at 23.5%. This mild outlook stems from a persistent high-pressure ridge channeling warmer continental air from the southeast, overriding March's typical 12-14°C historical averages. Differentiating factors include model spread in peak solar insolation—ECMWF slightly sunnier for 16-17°C potential versus GFS cloudier shading toward 15°C—and urban heat island amplification in Ankara's basin topography. Turkish Meteorological Service updates tomorrow could shift odds, as diurnal temperature ranges remain narrow at 8-10°C. Lower odds on extremes reflect low volatility in current synoptic patterns.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Ancara em 27 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Ancara em 27 de março?
15°C 26%
16°C 26%
17°C 24%
18°C 16%
11°C ou menos
2%
12°C
8%
13°C
14%
14°C
14%
15°C
26%
16°C
26%
17°C
24%
18°C
16%
19°C
13%
20°C
11%
21°C ou mais
3%
15°C 26%
16°C 26%
17°C 24%
18°C 16%
11°C ou menos
2%
12°C
8%
13°C
14%
14°C
14%
15°C
26%
16°C
26%
17°C
24%
18°C
16%
19°C
13%
20°C
11%
21°C ou mais
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts point to a midday peak high of 15-17°C in Ankara on March 27, driving the tight trader consensus with 25.5% odds on 15°C and 16°C, closely trailed by 17°C at 23.5%. This mild outlook stems from a persistent high-pressure ridge channeling warmer continental air from the southeast, overriding March's typical 12-14°C historical averages. Differentiating factors include model spread in peak solar insolation—ECMWF slightly sunnier for 16-17°C potential versus GFS cloudier shading toward 15°C—and urban heat island amplification in Ankara's basin topography. Turkish Meteorological Service updates tomorrow could shift odds, as diurnal temperature ranges remain narrow at 8-10°C. Lower odds on extremes reflect low volatility in current synoptic patterns.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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