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Eleições·Eleições Nos EUA

Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia

Market icon
Eleições·Eleições Nos EUA

Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia

Eric Swalwell 60%

Tom Steyer 11.9%

Steve Hilton 8.4%

Matt Mahan 8%

Polymarket

$7,139,145 Vol.

Eric Swalwell 60%

Tom Steyer 11.9%

Steve Hilton 8.4%

Matt Mahan 8%

Polymarket

$7,139,145 Vol.

Eric Swalwell

$101,452 Vol.

60%

Tom Steyer

$2,635,355 Vol.

12%

Steve Hilton

$758,174 Vol.

8%

Matt Mahan

$167,581 Vol.

8%

Elaine Culotti

$54,004 Vol.

4%

Chad Bianco

$671,694 Vol.

2%

Katie Porter

$595,620 Vol.

2%

Eleni Kounalakis

$215,568 Vol.

1%

Toni Atkins

$175,109 Vol.

1%

Nicole Shanahan

$148,257 Vol.

<1%

Tony Thurmond

$114,313 Vol.

<1%

Antonio Villaraigosa

$53,797 Vol.

<1%

Xavier Becerra

$291,984 Vol.

<1%

Rick Caruso

$223,534 Vol.

<1%

Stephen Cloobeck

$77,875 Vol.

<1%

Betty Yee

$65,351 Vol.

<1%

Kyle Langford

$164,485 Vol.

<1%

Leo Zacky

$22,242 Vol.

<1%

Kamala Harris

$116,929 Vol.

<1%

Alex Padilla

$133,759 Vol.

<1%

Butch Ware

$90,621 Vol.

<1%

Daniel Mercuri

$126,618 Vol.

<1%

Michael Younger

$134,824 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.Trader consensus favors Rep. Eric Swalwell at 59.5% to win California's open 2026 gubernatorial race, driven by his lead in the March 11 Emerson poll (17% support amid 25% undecided) and a Sacramento judge's recent dismissal of a residency challenge lawsuit that kept him on the June 2 nonpartisan top-two primary ballot. His national profile from congressional service bolsters name recognition in a fragmented Democratic field, where billionaire Tom Steyer (11.9%) leverages self-funding and Steve Hilton (8.5%) appeals to Republicans wary of a potential Democratic lockout. Attacks from rivals highlight vulnerabilities, but no party endorsement emerged from February's convention, underscoring the crowded primary's volatility ahead of the November general.

Trader consensus favors Rep. Eric Swalwell at 59.5% to win California's open 2026 gubernatorial race, driven by his lead in the March 11 Emerson poll (17% support amid 25% undecided) and a Sacramento judge's recent dismissal of a residency challenge lawsuit that kept him on the June 2 nonpartisan top-two primary ballot. His national profile from congressional service bolsters name recognition in a fragmented Democratic field, where billionaire Tom Steyer (11.9%) leverages self-funding and Steve Hilton (8.5%) appeals to Republicans wary of a potential Democratic lockout. Attacks from rivals highlight vulnerabilities, but no party endorsement emerged from February's convention, underscoring the crowded primary's volatility ahead of the November general.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.Trader consensus favors Rep. Eric Swalwell at 59.5% to win California's open 2026 gubernatorial race, driven by his lead in the March 11 Emerson poll (17% support amid 25% undecided) and a Sacramento judge's recent dismissal of a residency challenge lawsuit that kept him on the June 2 nonpartisan top-two primary ballot. His national profile from congressional service bolsters name recognition in a fragmented Democratic field, where billionaire Tom Steyer (11.9%) leverages self-funding and Steve Hilton (8.5%) appeals to Republicans wary of a potential Democratic lockout. Attacks from rivals highlight vulnerabilities, but no party endorsement emerged from February's convention, underscoring the crowded primary's volatility ahead of the November general.

Trader consensus favors Rep. Eric Swalwell at 59.5% to win California's open 2026 gubernatorial race, driven by his lead in the March 11 Emerson poll (17% support amid 25% undecided) and a Sacramento judge's recent dismissal of a residency challenge lawsuit that kept him on the June 2 nonpartisan top-two primary ballot. His national profile from congressional service bolsters name recognition in a fragmented Democratic field, where billionaire Tom Steyer (11.9%) leverages self-funding and Steve Hilton (8.5%) appeals to Republicans wary of a potential Democratic lockout. Attacks from rivals highlight vulnerabilities, but no party endorsement emerged from February's convention, underscoring the crowded primary's volatility ahead of the November general.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Eric Swalwell" at 60%, followed by "Tom Steyer" at 12%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 60¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 60% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia" has generated $7.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 9, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia" is "Eric Swalwell" at 60%, meaning the market assigns a 60% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Tom Steyer" at 12%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.