Recent opinion polls, such as the IANS-Matrize survey from mid-March projecting BJP-led NDA over 96 seats in the 126-member Assam Legislative Assembly, underpin trader consensus assigning 93% implied probability to BJP victory ahead of the April 9 single-phase polls. Incumbent Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma's strong approval—48% naming him top CM choice—reinforces NDA's path to a third term after 2021's 60-seat win, amid delimitation favoring upper Assam and fragmented opposition. Congress trails at 3.6% amid failed unity efforts with allies like Raijor Dal. Election Commission schedule announced March 15 has intensified campaigning, but late scandals, opposition consolidation, or turnout surges in tea tribe areas could challenge this dominance before May 4 counting.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição da Assembleia Legislativa de Assam
Vencedor da eleição da Assembleia Legislativa de Assam
BJP 93%
INC 3.7%
AGP 1.3%
BPF 1.0%
$10,097 Vol.
$10,097 Vol.
May 20, 2026
BJP
93%
INC
4%
AGP
1%
BPF
1%
NPEP
1%
NCP
1%
CPI(M)
1%
AIUDF
1%
CPI
1%
AITC
<1%
BJP 93%
INC 3.7%
AGP 1.3%
BPF 1.0%
$10,097 Vol.
$10,097 Vol.
May 20, 2026
BJP
$2,112 Vol.
93%
INC
$1,275 Vol.
4%
AGP
$631 Vol.
1%
BPF
$1,043 Vol.
1%
NPEP
$896 Vol.
1%
NCP
$765 Vol.
1%
CPI(M)
$702 Vol.
1%
AIUDF
$1,042 Vol.
1%
CPI
$847 Vol.
1%
AITC
$785 Vol.
<1%
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Assam, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).Recent opinion polls, such as the IANS-Matrize survey from mid-March projecting BJP-led NDA over 96 seats in the 126-member Assam Legislative Assembly, underpin trader consensus assigning 93% implied probability to BJP victory ahead of the April 9 single-phase polls. Incumbent Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma's strong approval—48% naming him top CM choice—reinforces NDA's path to a third term after 2021's 60-seat win, amid delimitation favoring upper Assam and fragmented opposition. Congress trails at 3.6% amid failed unity efforts with allies like Raijor Dal. Election Commission schedule announced March 15 has intensified campaigning, but late scandals, opposition consolidation, or turnout surges in tea tribe areas could challenge this dominance before May 4 counting.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Assam, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).
Mercado Aberto: Dec 23, 2025, 3:20 PM ET
Volume
$10,097Data de Término
Apr 9, 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 23, 2025, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Assam, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).Recent opinion polls, such as the IANS-Matrize survey from mid-March projecting BJP-led NDA over 96 seats in the 126-member Assam Legislative Assembly, underpin trader consensus assigning 93% implied probability to BJP victory ahead of the April 9 single-phase polls. Incumbent Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma's strong approval—48% naming him top CM choice—reinforces NDA's path to a third term after 2021's 60-seat win, amid delimitation favoring upper Assam and fragmented opposition. Congress trails at 3.6% amid failed unity efforts with allies like Raijor Dal. Election Commission schedule announced March 15 has intensified campaigning, but late scandals, opposition consolidation, or turnout surges in tea tribe areas could challenge this dominance before May 4 counting.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Assam, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).
Volume
$10,097Data de Término
Apr 9, 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 23, 2025, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent opinion polls, such as the IANS-Matrize survey from mid-March projecting BJP-led NDA over 96 seats in the 126-member Assam Legislative Assembly, underpin trader consensus assigning 93% implied probability to BJP victory ahead of the April 9 single-phase polls. Incumbent Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma's strong approval—48% naming him top CM choice—reinforces NDA's path to a third term after 2021's 60-seat win, amid delimitation favoring upper Assam and fragmented opposition. Congress trails at 3.6% amid failed unity efforts with allies like Raijor Dal. Election Commission schedule announced March 15 has intensified campaigning, but late scandals, opposition consolidation, or turnout surges in tea tribe areas could challenge this dominance before May 4 counting.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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