The Scottish National Party's commanding 96.9% implied probability stems from sustained polling dominance ahead of the 7 May 2026 Holyrood election, with recent March surveys by Survation (16-23 Mar: SNP 35%), Ipsos, and others showing a 16-point constituency vote lead over Reform UK and Labour at 17-19%, projecting 61-63 seats—far ahead of rivals in the mixed-member proportional system. SNP's post-2024 UK general election recovery, stable support for independence, and opponent fragmentation have entrenched this trader consensus, bolstered by recent campaign launches and candidate confirmations. Upsets remain possible via scandals targeting First Minister John Swinney, undecided voter shifts (40% open to change per Ipsos), or turnout disparities in key regions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoVencedor das Eleições Parlamentares da Escócia
Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares da Escócia
Partido Nacional Escocês 96.8%
Reform UK 1.5%
Partido da Soberania <1%
Partido Verde Escocês <1%
$1,608,539 Vol.
$1,608,539 Vol.
Partido Nacional Escocês
97%
Reform UK
2%
Partido da Soberania
<1%
Partido Verde Escocês
<1%
Conservadores Escoceses
<1%
Liberais Democratas Escoceses
<1%
Partido Trabalhista Escocês
<1%
Partido Alba
<1%
Partido Nacional Escocês 96.8%
Reform UK 1.5%
Partido da Soberania <1%
Partido Verde Escocês <1%
$1,608,539 Vol.
$1,608,539 Vol.
Partido Nacional Escocês
97%
Reform UK
2%
Partido da Soberania
<1%
Partido Verde Escocês
<1%
Conservadores Escoceses
<1%
Liberais Democratas Escoceses
<1%
Partido Trabalhista Escocês
<1%
Partido Alba
<1%
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
Mercado Aberto: Dec 12, 2025, 6:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Scottish National Party's commanding 96.9% implied probability stems from sustained polling dominance ahead of the 7 May 2026 Holyrood election, with recent March surveys by Survation (16-23 Mar: SNP 35%), Ipsos, and others showing a 16-point constituency vote lead over Reform UK and Labour at 17-19%, projecting 61-63 seats—far ahead of rivals in the mixed-member proportional system. SNP's post-2024 UK general election recovery, stable support for independence, and opponent fragmentation have entrenched this trader consensus, bolstered by recent campaign launches and candidate confirmations. Upsets remain possible via scandals targeting First Minister John Swinney, undecided voter shifts (40% open to change per Ipsos), or turnout disparities in key regions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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