Trader consensus heavily favors the Scottish National Party as the largest party in the upcoming Scottish Parliament election on May 7, driven by consistent opinion polls showing SNP leads of 15-16 points in constituency voting intention. The latest Norstat poll for The Sunday Times (March 30-April 1) places SNP at 34% constituency and 30% regional list shares, ahead of Labour (19%/17%) and Reform UK (15%/15%), with seat projections from analysts like Sir John Curtice estimating SNP at 57 seats and Ballot Box Scotland at 63—well clear of rivals amid fragmented opposition. Labour's post-general election weakness and Conservatives' collapse to Reform bolster SNP's dominance under the additional member system. Realistic challenges include a major scandal for First Minister John Swinney or unexpected Reform surge, though recent Reform decline reduces upset risks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoVencedor das Eleições Parlamentares da Escócia
Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares da Escócia
Partido Nacional Escocês 97.0%
Reform UK 1.4%
Partido Trabalhista Escocês <1%
Partido da Soberania <1%
$1,609,750 Vol.
$1,609,750 Vol.
Partido Nacional Escocês
97%
Reform UK
1%
Partido Trabalhista Escocês
1%
Partido da Soberania
<1%
Partido Verde Escocês
<1%
Conservadores Escoceses
<1%
Liberais Democratas Escoceses
<1%
Partido Alba
<1%
Partido Nacional Escocês 97.0%
Reform UK 1.4%
Partido Trabalhista Escocês <1%
Partido da Soberania <1%
$1,609,750 Vol.
$1,609,750 Vol.
Partido Nacional Escocês
97%
Reform UK
1%
Partido Trabalhista Escocês
1%
Partido da Soberania
<1%
Partido Verde Escocês
<1%
Conservadores Escoceses
<1%
Liberais Democratas Escoceses
<1%
Partido Alba
<1%
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
Mercado Aberto: Dec 12, 2025, 6:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Scottish National Party as the largest party in the upcoming Scottish Parliament election on May 7, driven by consistent opinion polls showing SNP leads of 15-16 points in constituency voting intention. The latest Norstat poll for The Sunday Times (March 30-April 1) places SNP at 34% constituency and 30% regional list shares, ahead of Labour (19%/17%) and Reform UK (15%/15%), with seat projections from analysts like Sir John Curtice estimating SNP at 57 seats and Ballot Box Scotland at 63—well clear of rivals amid fragmented opposition. Labour's post-general election weakness and Conservatives' collapse to Reform bolster SNP's dominance under the additional member system. Realistic challenges include a major scandal for First Minister John Swinney or unexpected Reform surge, though recent Reform decline reduces upset risks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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