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Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares da Escócia

Market icon

Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares da Escócia

Partido Nacional Escocês 96.8%

Reform UK 1.5%

Partido da Soberania <1%

Partido Verde Escocês <1%

Polymarket

$1,608,539 Vol.

Partido Nacional Escocês 96.8%

Reform UK 1.5%

Partido da Soberania <1%

Partido Verde Escocês <1%

Polymarket

$1,608,539 Vol.

Partido Nacional Escocês

$1,306,589 Vol.

97%

Reform UK

$81,160 Vol.

2%

Partido da Soberania

$6,798 Vol.

<1%

Partido Verde Escocês

$41,729 Vol.

<1%

Conservadores Escoceses

$5,754 Vol.

<1%

Liberais Democratas Escoceses

$108,052 Vol.

<1%

Partido Trabalhista Escocês

$41,432 Vol.

<1%

Partido Alba

$17,025 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election. If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).The Scottish National Party's commanding 96.9% implied probability stems from sustained polling dominance ahead of the 7 May 2026 Holyrood election, with recent March surveys by Survation (16-23 Mar: SNP 35%), Ipsos, and others showing a 16-point constituency vote lead over Reform UK and Labour at 17-19%, projecting 61-63 seats—far ahead of rivals in the mixed-member proportional system. SNP's post-2024 UK general election recovery, stable support for independence, and opponent fragmentation have entrenched this trader consensus, bolstered by recent campaign launches and candidate confirmations. Upsets remain possible via scandals targeting First Minister John Swinney, undecided voter shifts (40% open to change per Ipsos), or turnout disparities in key regions.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.

If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
Volume
$1,608,539
Data de Término
7 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election. If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election. If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).The Scottish National Party's commanding 96.9% implied probability stems from sustained polling dominance ahead of the 7 May 2026 Holyrood election, with recent March surveys by Survation (16-23 Mar: SNP 35%), Ipsos, and others showing a 16-point constituency vote lead over Reform UK and Labour at 17-19%, projecting 61-63 seats—far ahead of rivals in the mixed-member proportional system. SNP's post-2024 UK general election recovery, stable support for independence, and opponent fragmentation have entrenched this trader consensus, bolstered by recent campaign launches and candidate confirmations. Upsets remain possible via scandals targeting First Minister John Swinney, undecided voter shifts (40% open to change per Ipsos), or turnout disparities in key regions.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.

If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
Volume
$1,608,539
Data de Término
7 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election. If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares da Escócia" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Partido Nacional Escocês" at 97%, followed by "Reform UK" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 97¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares da Escócia" has generated $1.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares da Escócia," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares da Escócia" is "Partido Nacional Escocês" at 97%, meaning the market assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Reform UK" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares da Escócia" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.