Trader consensus on Polymarket tightly clusters around 240-299 posts for Elon Musk's X activity from April 7-14, with 260-279 and 280-299 each at 13.5% implied probability and 240-259 close at 12.5%, mirroring his established rhythm of 35-42 daily posts sustained through March—exceeding 42 per day on average—and early April spikes like 77 on April 1 and a 49-post daily average April 2-4. This competitive spread reflects variability in Musk's viral posting habits, driven by real-time responses to Tesla chip fab reveals, SpaceX lunar ambitions, and the imminent X Money rollout confirmed this week, which could spike volume amid his multi-company demands. Key swing factors include breaking announcements or engineering focus dips, with resolution via official XTracker data underscoring the crowd wisdom in these high-volume cultural barometers.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado260-279 14%
280-299 14%
240-259 13%
300-319 13%
$369,864 Vol.
$369,864 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
4%
220-239
9%
240-259
13%
260-279
14%
280-299
14%
300-319
13%
320-339
11%
340-359
9%
360-379
8%
380-399
6%
400-419
3%
420-439
2%
440-459
2%
460-479
1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
260-279 14%
280-299 14%
240-259 13%
300-319 13%
$369,864 Vol.
$369,864 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
4%
220-239
9%
240-259
13%
260-279
14%
280-299
14%
300-319
13%
320-339
11%
340-359
9%
360-379
8%
380-399
6%
400-419
3%
420-439
2%
440-459
2%
460-479
1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 4, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Fonte de resolução
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tightly clusters around 240-299 posts for Elon Musk's X activity from April 7-14, with 260-279 and 280-299 each at 13.5% implied probability and 240-259 close at 12.5%, mirroring his established rhythm of 35-42 daily posts sustained through March—exceeding 42 per day on average—and early April spikes like 77 on April 1 and a 49-post daily average April 2-4. This competitive spread reflects variability in Musk's viral posting habits, driven by real-time responses to Tesla chip fab reveals, SpaceX lunar ambitions, and the imminent X Money rollout confirmed this week, which could spike volume amid his multi-company demands. Key swing factors include breaking announcements or engineering focus dips, with resolution via official XTracker data underscoring the crowd wisdom in these high-volume cultural barometers.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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