Foreign Policy predictions & odds

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Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Foreign Policy

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

$16m Vol.

$2m today

$2m Liq.

Ends in 12 months

20%

$16m Vol.

$2m today

$2m Liq.

Ends in 12 months

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?

Foreign Policy

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?

$17m Vol.

$772k today

$674k Liq.

Ends in 11 days

2%

$17m Vol.

$772k today

$674k Liq.

Ends in 11 days

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Foreign Policy

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

$9m Vol.

$143k today

$875k Liq.

20,361

Ends in 2 months

14%

$9m Vol.

$143k today

$875k Liq.

20,361

Ends in 2 months

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

Foreign Policy

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

$1m Vol.

$67.7k today

$95.1k Liq.

Ends in 2 months

3%

$1m Vol.

$67.7k today

$95.1k Liq.

Ends in 2 months

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Foreign Policy

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

$7m Vol.

$534k Liq.

71

Ends in 12 months

13%

$7m Vol.

$534k Liq.

71

Ends in 12 months

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Foreign Policy

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

$7m Vol.

$391k Liq.

5,422

Ends in 12 months

42%

$7m Vol.

$391k Liq.

5,422

Ends in 12 months

US strike on Mexico by...?

Foreign Policy

US strike on Mexico by...?

$2m Vol.

$34.9k Liq.

104

Ends in 12 months

23%

December 31

$2m Vol.

$34.9k Liq.

104

Ends in 12 months

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Foreign Policy

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

$57.2k Vol.

$9.6k Liq.

Ends in 5 months

28%

$57.2k Vol.

$9.6k Liq.

Ends in 5 months

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Foreign Policy

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

$381k Vol.

$60.4k Liq.

Ends in 12 months

19%

$381k Vol.

$60.4k Liq.

Ends in 12 months

Will Trump meet with Putin again by...?

Foreign Policy

Will Trump meet with Putin again by...?

$7m Vol.

$5.2k Liq.

251

Ends in 2 months

18%

March 31, 2026

$7m Vol.

$5.2k Liq.

251

Ends in 2 months

Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31?

Foreign Policy

Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31?

$75.1k Vol.

$8.0k Liq.

1

Ends in 2 months

17%

$75.1k Vol.

$8.0k Liq.

1

Ends in 2 months

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

Foreign Policy

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

$1m Vol.

$5.4k Liq.

140

14%

March 31, 2026

$1m Vol.

$5.4k Liq.

140

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

Foreign Policy

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

$143k Vol.

$36.2k Liq.

Ends in 12 months

19%

December 31

$143k Vol.

$36.2k Liq.

Ends in 12 months

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

Foreign Policy

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

$48.3k Vol.

$9.7k Liq.

Ends in 12 months

12%

$48.3k Vol.

$9.7k Liq.

Ends in 12 months

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?

Foreign Policy

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?

$157k Vol.

$13.8k Liq.

Ends in 2 months

16%

$157k Vol.

$13.8k Liq.

Ends in 2 months

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31?

Foreign Policy

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31?

$514k Vol.

$8.8k Liq.

27

Ends in 5 months

34%

June 30

$514k Vol.

$8.8k Liq.

27

Ends in 5 months

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations by March 31?

Foreign Policy

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations by March 31?

$22.2k Vol.

$3.0k Liq.

Ends in 2 months

2%

$22.2k Vol.

$3.0k Liq.

Ends in 2 months

US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?

Foreign Policy

US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?

$96.1k Vol.

$9.0k Liq.

Ends in 2 months

29%

$96.1k Vol.

$9.0k Liq.

Ends in 2 months

Ukraine election held by...?

Foreign Policy

Ukraine election held by...?

$2m Vol.

$19.6k Liq.

45

33%

December 31, 2026

$2m Vol.

$19.6k Liq.

45

How many different countries will the US strike in 2026?

Foreign Policy

How many different countries will the US strike in 2026?

$148k Vol.

$26.2k Liq.

3

Ends in 12 months

18%

7

$148k Vol.

$26.2k Liq.

3

Ends in 12 months

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