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This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between September 30 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "No meeting by June 30" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.

A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Belarus

Finland

Russia

Japan

United States

Other

Ukraine

Turkey

Switzerland

Gulf country

South Korea

Australia

Other EU country

No meeting by June 30

China

Where will Trump and Putin meet next?

On August 15, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in person at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson near Anchorage, Alaska, for a summit focused on potential peace terms in Ukraine. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin meets with Donald Trump on a separate occasion from the August 15, 2025 meeting by the listed date (ET).  Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Encounters that are part of, or a continuation of, the August 15 meeting will not qualify, even if they occur on a different day (e.g. August 16).

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Putin and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump meet with Putin by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Reza Pahlavi by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump meet with Reza Pahlavi by January 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Jerome Powell by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell by January 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between January 6 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between U.S. and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. 

Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. 

Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Xi Jinping meets with Cheng Li-wun by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Xi Jinping and Cheng Li-wun are present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Donald Trump visit Virginia in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin talk by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

A talk is defined as any interaction between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.

Events that occurred prior to the start of this market will not qualify toward its resolution.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by March 31?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between January 2, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.

Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify.

Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.

Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits Minneapolis or Saint Paul between market creation and January 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed cities. Whether or not Trump enters the cities’ airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Trump visit Minneapolis-Saint Paul by January 16?

Donald Trump is scheduled to participate in an event titled "The President participates in a Visit of the 2025 Stanley Cup Champions The Florida Panthers" in Washington on January 15, 2026, 4PM ET (see https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about the scheduled event titled "The President participates in a Visit of the 2025 Stanley Cup Champions The Florida Panthers" on January 15, 2026, 4PM ET (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Unbelievable" or "Fantastic" or "Incredible" 10+ times during Panthers visit?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between December 9, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability.

An extension, amendment, or replacement of the New START treaty will qualify, provided it is publicly announced as a concluded agreement by both parties within the time frame. Exploratory discussions or stated intent to extend without a finalized agreement will not qualify.

Agreements that include both the United States and Russia as named parties—whether bilateral or as part of a broader multilateral framework—will qualify, provided the agreement directly addresses nuclear arms control.

The agreement does not need to be ratified or implemented for this market to resolve "Yes"; a formal announcement of a concluded agreement is sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government (e.g., the White House, State Department) and/or the Russian Federation (e.g., the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs). However, a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?

Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver a special address during  the "How can we cooperate in a more contested world?" session of the WEF 2026 at Davos on Wednesday, January 21, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about the scheduled "Special Address by Donald J. Trump, President of the United States of America" (https://www.weforum.org/meetings/world-economic-forum-annual-meeting-2026/sessions/special-address-by-donald-j-trump-president-of-the-united-states-of-america-49a709be7a/). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by January 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Affordability" during WEF Address on January 21?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration or the U.S. government announces that it is sending, has sent, or will send Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying statement within the specified timeframe will suffice regardless of when the missiles are sent.

For the purposes of this market, official policy announcements from the Trump administration or the U.S. government will qualify. Informal statements, leaks, or speculative remarks will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, the U.S. government, or the government of Ukraine. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if no direct official statement is available.

Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by March 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Trump impeached by end of 2026?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the autonomous territory of Greenland by March 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Greenland. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ali Khamenei visits Russia by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "visit" is defined as Ali Khamenei physically entering the terrestrial territory of Russia in a voluntary capacity. Whether or not Ali Khamenei enters Russian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

Entering Russia requires physically entering sovereign Russian territory, including all Russian federal subjects and territories. Areas under Russian control but not under Russian sovereignty (e.g., Crimea) do not count. Russian airspace, Russian embassies/consulates abroad, and international zones do not constitute Russian sovereign territory.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Khamenei visit Russia by June 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if María Machado is photographed or videotaped wearing a dress or skirt in the physical presence of Trump at any point during their next in-person meeting period between market creation and January 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A “meeting period” refers to the full continuous span of time associated with their next in-person engagement. The meeting period begins when Machado and Trump first meet in person and continues through any pauses until at least one of the two individuals departs the country in which that in-person engagement is taking place.

If a qualifying meeting period begins before January 16, 2026, but is still ongoing as of that date, this market will remain open until that meeting period concludes.

A dress or skirt refers to women's attire where a dress is a one-piece garment covering the torso and legs without a division between the legs, or a skirt is a separate bottom garment that encircles the lower body as a single unified piece of fabric rather than being bifurcated into separate leg openings, as commonly understood in Western formal or semi-formal dress codes.

This market will resolve to “No” if the next meeting period concludes without a qualifying photograph or video, or if no qualifying in-person meeting occurs by January 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.

Machado wears a dress or skirt during next Trump meeting?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz before 2027?

This market will resolve according to the length of the longest filmed handshake between Donald Trump and Maria Machado between market creation and January 16, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Any handshake recorded between market creation and that date (ET) will qualify.

If no handshake occurs during the date of their next meeting, or if no meeting takes place by January 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”.

If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only".

Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact.

If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

Qualifying Requirements:
The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person.
Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted).
The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish.

Non-qualifying examples:
Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings.
Any handshake that too unclear to measure.
Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration.

The resolution source will be video footage.

Will Trump and Machado not shake hands?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, any candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is interviewed by Tucker Carlson between November 17, 2025 and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An interview is defined as a scheduled, recorded conversation where Donald Trump answers questions posed by Tucker Carlson. Press conferences or media briefings held by the White House with Carlson in attendance will not count.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a credible consensus of reporting that Donald Trump has recorded an interview with Tucker Carlson before February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, even if that interview is not yet released.

The resolution source for this market will be publicly available video footage of the interview; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Tucker Carlson interview Trump by February 28?

Donald Trump is expected to deliver the 2026 State of the Union address in late January or early February. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled delivery of the 2026 State of the Union address. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next?

No meeting by June 30
$22,772 Vol.
63%

Other EU country
$38,157 Vol.
18%

United States
$11,822 Vol.
5%

Turkey
$12,997 Vol.
4%

Russia
$15,771 Vol.
4%

Other
$13,205 Vol.
3%

China
$59,449 Vol.
2%

Switzerland
$12,711 Vol.
2%

Gulf country
$12,126 Vol.
1%

Belarus
$60,418 Vol.
1%

South Korea
$17,541 Vol.
1%

Finland
$31,338 Vol.
<1%

Ukraine
$92,905 Vol.
<1%

Japan
$25,565 Vol.
<1%

Australia
$45,806 Vol.
<1%

Market Context

Where will Trump and Putin meet next?

Rules

Where will Trump and Putin meet next?

Market Context

Where will Trump and Putin meet next?

About

Related

Where will Trump and Putin meet next?

No meeting by June 30$22,772 Vol.63%buy Yes65.2¢buy No40.0¢

Other EU country$38,157 Vol.18%buy Yes19.8¢buy No82.9¢

United States$11,822 Vol.5%buy Yes6.9¢buy No96.4¢

Turkey$12,997 Vol.4%buy Yes5.6¢buy No97.5¢

Russia$15,771 Vol.4%buy Yes4.2¢buy No96.5¢

Other$13,205 Vol.3%buy Yes3.5¢buy No97.9¢

China$59,449 Vol.2%buy Yes3.3¢buy No98.8¢

Switzerland$12,711 Vol.2%buy Yes1.7¢buy No98.4¢

Gulf country$12,126 Vol.1%buy Yes1.6¢buy No98.8¢

Belarus$60,418 Vol.1%buy Yes1.3¢buy No98.9¢

South Korea$17,541 Vol.1%buy Yes0.6¢buy No99.6¢

Finland$31,338 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.4¢buy No99.8¢

Ukraine$92,905 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.4¢buy No99.8¢

Japan$25,565 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.3¢buy No99.8¢

Australia$45,806 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.3¢buy No99.8¢

Market Context

Where will Trump and Putin meet next?

Rules

Where will Trump and Putin meet next?

Market Context

Where will Trump and Putin meet next?

About

Related

No meeting by June 30
$22,772 Vol.
63%

Other EU country
$38,157 Vol.
18%

United States
$11,822 Vol.
5%

Turkey
$12,997 Vol.
4%

Russia
$15,771 Vol.
4%

Other
$13,205 Vol.
3%

China
$59,449 Vol.
2%

Switzerland
$12,711 Vol.
2%

Gulf country
$12,126 Vol.
1%

Belarus
$60,418 Vol.
1%

South Korea
$17,541 Vol.
1%

Finland
$31,338 Vol.
<1%

Ukraine
$92,905 Vol.
<1%

Japan
$25,565 Vol.
<1%

Australia
$45,806 Vol.
<1%