Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71.5% implied probability for WTI crude oil (CL) March contract settling at $90+, reflecting aggressive positioning amid escalating supply risks. Ukraine's drone strikes have idled over 10% of Russia's refining capacity in recent weeks, tightening global product markets, while persistent Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have rerouted 12% of tanker traffic, inflating shipping costs by 40%. Buoyant Chinese manufacturing PMI at 50.1% signals demand rebound, countering softer U.S. inventories from the latest EIA report showing a 1.6 million barrel crude draw. OPEC+ cut compliance remains firm ahead of next month's monitoring meeting, supporting the rally from sub-$75 levels in January. Lower bins trail due to resilient U.S. shale output capping upside extremes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$90+ 72%
$80-$85 14.0%
$85-$90 11%
$75-$80 2.9%
$975,923 Vol.
$975,923 Vol.
<$60
<1%
$60-$65
<1%
$65-$70
1%
$70-$75
2%
$75-$80
3%
$80-$85
14%
$85-$90
11%
$90+
72%
$90+ 72%
$80-$85 14.0%
$85-$90 11%
$75-$80 2.9%
$975,923 Vol.
$975,923 Vol.
<$60
<1%
$60-$65
<1%
$65-$70
1%
$70-$75
2%
$75-$80
3%
$80-$85
14%
$85-$90
11%
$90+
72%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Market Opened: Mar 3, 2026, 7:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71.5% implied probability for WTI crude oil (CL) March contract settling at $90+, reflecting aggressive positioning amid escalating supply risks. Ukraine's drone strikes have idled over 10% of Russia's refining capacity in recent weeks, tightening global product markets, while persistent Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have rerouted 12% of tanker traffic, inflating shipping costs by 40%. Buoyant Chinese manufacturing PMI at 50.1% signals demand rebound, countering softer U.S. inventories from the latest EIA report showing a 1.6 million barrel crude draw. OPEC+ cut compliance remains firm ahead of next month's monitoring meeting, supporting the rally from sub-$75 levels in January. Lower bins trail due to resilient U.S. shale output capping upside extremes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated


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