How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
5-6 35%
7-8 33%
9-10 16%
<5 11%
$7,180 Vol
$7,180 Vol
Dec 31, 2026
<5
$1,196 Vol.
11%
<5
$1,196 Vol.
11%
5-6
$1,142 Vol.
35%
5-6
$1,142 Vol.
35%
7-8
$931 Vol.
33%
7-8
$931 Vol.
33%
9-10
$945 Vol.
16%
9-10
$945 Vol.
16%
11-12
$726 Vol.
5%
11-12
$726 Vol.
5%
13-14
$725 Vol.
3%
13-14
$725 Vol.
3%
15-16
$854 Vol.
4%
15-16
$854 Vol.
4%
>16
$661 Vol.
3%
>16
$661 Vol.
3%
Rules
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Created At: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$7,180End Date
Dec 31, 2026Created At
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
5-6 35%
7-8 33%
9-10 16%
<5 11%
$7,180 Vol
$7,180 Vol
Dec 31, 2026
<5
$1,196 Vol.
11%
5-6
$1,142 Vol.
35%
7-8
$931 Vol.
33%
9-10
$945 Vol.
16%
11-12
$726 Vol.
5%
13-14
$725 Vol.
3%
15-16
$854 Vol.
4%
>16
$661 Vol.
3%
About
Volume
$7,180End Date
Dec 31, 2026Created At
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.