Trader consensus tilts toward a Chicago high of 68-69°F on March 26 at 19.5% implied odds, propelled by the National Weather Service's latest guidance forecasting a peak near 68°F under mild southerly winds and partial sunshine. Differentiating factors include ensemble model spreads—GFS ensembles clustering 67-70°F, ECMWF cooler at 65-68°F—hinging on low-level cloud cover from a weakening frontal boundary; thinner clouds could boost 70-73°F bins (12.5% odds) via enhanced insolation, while persistent stratus favors 64-67°F. Upper-air ridging supports warmth above March's 52°F climatological average, but Great Lakes moderation caps extremes; monitor afternoon 12Z model runs for shifts ahead of evening convection risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on March 26?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 26?
68-69°F 22%
66-67°F 16%
64-65°F 13%
70-71°F 13%
$50,218 Vol.
$50,218 Vol.
59°F or below
5%
60-61°F
5%
62-63°F
6%
64-65°F
13%
66-67°F
16%
68-69°F
22%
70-71°F
13%
72-73°F
12%
74-75°F
5%
76-77°F
6%
78°F or higher
4%
68-69°F 22%
66-67°F 16%
64-65°F 13%
70-71°F 13%
$50,218 Vol.
$50,218 Vol.
59°F or below
5%
60-61°F
5%
62-63°F
6%
64-65°F
13%
66-67°F
16%
68-69°F
22%
70-71°F
13%
72-73°F
12%
74-75°F
5%
76-77°F
6%
78°F or higher
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus tilts toward a Chicago high of 68-69°F on March 26 at 19.5% implied odds, propelled by the National Weather Service's latest guidance forecasting a peak near 68°F under mild southerly winds and partial sunshine. Differentiating factors include ensemble model spreads—GFS ensembles clustering 67-70°F, ECMWF cooler at 65-68°F—hinging on low-level cloud cover from a weakening frontal boundary; thinner clouds could boost 70-73°F bins (12.5% odds) via enhanced insolation, while persistent stratus favors 64-67°F. Upper-air ridging supports warmth above March's 52°F climatological average, but Great Lakes moderation caps extremes; monitor afternoon 12Z model runs for shifts ahead of evening convection risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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