Trader sentiment on Polymarket's Beijing highest temperature market for March 26 clusters tightly around 24-26°C, with 25°C leading at 29% implied probability, propelled by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting peaks in the mid-20s under a persistent high-pressure ridge fostering southerly warm air advection and ample solar insolation. Recent surface observations confirm mild overnight lows near 12°C and clear skies amplifying daytime boundary layer heating, augmented by Beijing's urban heat island effect adding up to 2°C. Key differentiators among top outcomes stem from subtle model divergences in cloud cover parameterization and afternoon convective mixing, per China Meteorological Administration guidance hovering at 25°C; intraday updates from local stations will sharpen resolution as diurnal maximum nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on March 26?
Highest temperature in Beijing on March 26?
25°C 29%
26°C 26%
24°C 25%
23°C 15%
21°C or below
2%
22°C
3%
23°C
15%
24°C
25%
25°C
29%
26°C
26%
27°C
4%
28°C
2%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
<1%
25°C 29%
26°C 26%
24°C 25%
23°C 15%
21°C or below
2%
22°C
3%
23°C
15%
24°C
25%
25°C
29%
26°C
26%
27°C
4%
28°C
2%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 22, 2026, 6:06 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Polymarket's Beijing highest temperature market for March 26 clusters tightly around 24-26°C, with 25°C leading at 29% implied probability, propelled by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting peaks in the mid-20s under a persistent high-pressure ridge fostering southerly warm air advection and ample solar insolation. Recent surface observations confirm mild overnight lows near 12°C and clear skies amplifying daytime boundary layer heating, augmented by Beijing's urban heat island effect adding up to 2°C. Key differentiators among top outcomes stem from subtle model divergences in cloud cover parameterization and afternoon convective mixing, per China Meteorological Administration guidance hovering at 25°C; intraday updates from local stations will sharpen resolution as diurnal maximum nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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