Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on Elon Musk posting 320-359 tweets from March 20-27, 2026, with those ranges each at 11.5% implied probability, reflecting his historical average of roughly 35-45 daily X posts amid relentless engagement on tech feuds, SpaceX milestones, and political commentary. Recent weeks have seen spikes above 50 posts per day during Tesla earnings or election buzz, fueling bets on 340-359, while quieter periods pull toward 320-339; lower bins like 280-299 at 6.5% account for potential lulls if Musk delegates more or faces platform tweaks. Competitive dynamics hinge on unpredictable event catalysts—any late-March launch or controversy could push toward 400+, but steady cultural dominance as X's top voice keeps mid-300s dominant.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated320-339 12%
340-359 12%
300-319 11%
360-379 11%
$1,903,743 Vol.
$1,903,743 Vol.
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
1%
220-239
1%
240-259
3%
260-279
5%
280-299
7%
300-319
11%
320-339
12%
340-359
12%
360-379
11%
380-399
10%
400-419
9%
420-439
7%
440-459
5%
460-479
3%
480-499
2%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
320-339 12%
340-359 12%
300-319 11%
360-379 11%
$1,903,743 Vol.
$1,903,743 Vol.
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
1%
220-239
1%
240-259
3%
260-279
5%
280-299
7%
300-319
11%
320-339
12%
340-359
12%
360-379
11%
380-399
10%
400-419
9%
420-439
7%
440-459
5%
460-479
3%
480-499
2%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 17, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on Elon Musk posting 320-359 tweets from March 20-27, 2026, with those ranges each at 11.5% implied probability, reflecting his historical average of roughly 35-45 daily X posts amid relentless engagement on tech feuds, SpaceX milestones, and political commentary. Recent weeks have seen spikes above 50 posts per day during Tesla earnings or election buzz, fueling bets on 340-359, while quieter periods pull toward 320-339; lower bins like 280-299 at 6.5% account for potential lulls if Musk delegates more or faces platform tweaks. Competitive dynamics hinge on unpredictable event catalysts—any late-March launch or controversy could push toward 400+, but steady cultural dominance as X's top voice keeps mid-300s dominant.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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