Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 1,300-1,500 tweets in April 2026, with the 1,360-1,399 range leading at 8.3% implied probability—equating to roughly 45-50 daily posts over the month's 30 days—driven primarily by his sustained high-volume tweeting pace of 40-60 per day in recent months, amplified by his X ownership and political activism. This cluster reflects historical averages from 2024-2025 data, where peaks coincided with Tesla launches, SpaceX milestones, and election fervor, though variance persists due to unpredictable controversies or downtime. Lower bins trail amid bets on potential moderation from advisory roles or platform algorithm shifts, but no confirmed events loom to decisively sway the closely matched top contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated1360-1399 8.3%
1400-1439 7.5%
1280-1319 6.1%
1320-1359 6.0%
$4,224,171 Vol.
$4,224,171 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
<1%
680-699
1%
700-719
<1%
720-739
2%
740-759
1%
760-779
1%
780-799
1%
800-839
1%
840-879
1%
880-919
1%
920-959
1%
960-999
2%
1000-1039
2%
1040-1079
3%
1080-1119
3%
1120-1159
3%
1160-1199
4%
1200-1239
4%
1240-1279
5%
1280-1319
6%
1320-1359
6%
1360-1399
8%
1400-1439
8%
1440-1479
5%
1480-1519
5%
1520-1559
4%
1560-1599
4%
1600-1679
4%
1680-1759
4%
1760-1839
3%
1840-1919
2%
1920-1999
2%
2000+
2%
1360-1399 8.3%
1400-1439 7.5%
1280-1319 6.1%
1320-1359 6.0%
$4,224,171 Vol.
$4,224,171 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
<1%
680-699
1%
700-719
<1%
720-739
2%
740-759
1%
760-779
1%
780-799
1%
800-839
1%
840-879
1%
880-919
1%
920-959
1%
960-999
2%
1000-1039
2%
1040-1079
3%
1080-1119
3%
1120-1159
3%
1160-1199
4%
1200-1239
4%
1240-1279
5%
1280-1319
6%
1320-1359
6%
1360-1399
8%
1400-1439
8%
1440-1479
5%
1480-1519
5%
1520-1559
4%
1560-1599
4%
1600-1679
4%
1680-1759
4%
1760-1839
3%
1840-1919
2%
1920-1999
2%
2000+
2%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Feb 24, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 1,300-1,500 tweets in April 2026, with the 1,360-1,399 range leading at 8.3% implied probability—equating to roughly 45-50 daily posts over the month's 30 days—driven primarily by his sustained high-volume tweeting pace of 40-60 per day in recent months, amplified by his X ownership and political activism. This cluster reflects historical averages from 2024-2025 data, where peaks coincided with Tesla launches, SpaceX milestones, and election fervor, though variance persists due to unpredictable controversies or downtime. Lower bins trail amid bets on potential moderation from advisory roles or platform algorithm shifts, but no confirmed events loom to decisively sway the closely matched top contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
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