Incumbent Republican Troy Downing faces no primary opposition ahead of the June 2, 2026, contest in Montana’s 2nd District, a seat with an R+15 Partisan Voter Index that delivered him 65.7 percent of the vote in 2024. This structural advantage, combined with the district’s eastern and rural voter base, has produced overwhelming trader consensus for a Republican hold. Democratic candidates remain in a contested primary with limited resources and name recognition. Only a highly improbable primary upset, a historic national political shift before November 3, 2026, or an unforeseen late entry by a high-profile independent could realistically alter the current positioning.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
7%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$6,411 거래량
93%
Democratic Party
$2,914 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Troy Downing faces no primary opposition ahead of the June 2, 2026, contest in Montana’s 2nd District, a seat with an R+15 Partisan Voter Index that delivered him 65.7 percent of the vote in 2024. This structural advantage, combined with the district’s eastern and rural voter base, has produced overwhelming trader consensus for a Republican hold. Democratic candidates remain in a contested primary with limited resources and name recognition. Only a highly improbable primary upset, a historic national political shift before November 3, 2026, or an unforeseen late entry by a high-profile independent could realistically alter the current positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
거래량
$9,324종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Troy Downing faces no primary opposition ahead of the June 2, 2026, contest in Montana’s 2nd District, a seat with an R+15 Partisan Voter Index that delivered him 65.7 percent of the vote in 2024. This structural advantage, combined with the district’s eastern and rural voter base, has produced overwhelming trader consensus for a Republican hold. Democratic candidates remain in a contested primary with limited resources and name recognition. Only a highly improbable primary upset, a historic national political shift before November 3, 2026, or an unforeseen late entry by a high-profile independent could realistically alter the current positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$9,324종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Troy Downing faces no primary opposition ahead of the June 2, 2026, contest in Montana’s 2nd District, a seat with an R+15 Partisan Voter Index that delivered him 65.7 percent of the vote in 2024. This structural advantage, combined with the district’s eastern and rural voter base, has produced overwhelming trader consensus for a Republican hold. Democratic candidates remain in a contested primary with limited resources and name recognition. Only a highly improbable primary upset, a historic national political shift before November 3, 2026, or an unforeseen late entry by a high-profile independent could realistically alter the current positioning.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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