**Incumbent Democrat Josh Harder commands trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability to retain California's 9th Congressional District seat following mid-decade redistricting that shifted the boundaries—encompassing San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and parts of Contra Costa counties—toward a stronger Democratic lean, erasing his narrow 2024 margin of under four points against Republican Kevin Lincoln.** Harder's unchallenged primary position contrasts with a fragmented Republican field of four challengers, including Lincoln, John McBride, Jim Shoemaker, and Parminder Singh, diluting GOP strength ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. This structural advantage, incumbency edge, and lack of recent scandals underpin the lopsided odds, though a consolidated Republican primary victor, national midterm wave favoring the opposition party, or unexpected Harder controversy could narrow the path.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$11,756 거래량
$11,756 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
91%
Republican Party
9%
$11,756 거래량
$11,756 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$9,166 거래량
91%
Republican Party
$2,590 거래량
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Democrat Josh Harder commands trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability to retain California's 9th Congressional District seat following mid-decade redistricting that shifted the boundaries—encompassing San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and parts of Contra Costa counties—toward a stronger Democratic lean, erasing his narrow 2024 margin of under four points against Republican Kevin Lincoln.** Harder's unchallenged primary position contrasts with a fragmented Republican field of four challengers, including Lincoln, John McBride, Jim Shoemaker, and Parminder Singh, diluting GOP strength ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. This structural advantage, incumbency edge, and lack of recent scandals underpin the lopsided odds, though a consolidated Republican primary victor, national midterm wave favoring the opposition party, or unexpected Harder controversy could narrow the path.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
거래량
$11,756종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Democrat Josh Harder commands trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability to retain California's 9th Congressional District seat following mid-decade redistricting that shifted the boundaries—encompassing San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and parts of Contra Costa counties—toward a stronger Democratic lean, erasing his narrow 2024 margin of under four points against Republican Kevin Lincoln.** Harder's unchallenged primary position contrasts with a fragmented Republican field of four challengers, including Lincoln, John McBride, Jim Shoemaker, and Parminder Singh, diluting GOP strength ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. This structural advantage, incumbency edge, and lack of recent scandals underpin the lopsided odds, though a consolidated Republican primary victor, national midterm wave favoring the opposition party, or unexpected Harder controversy could narrow the path.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$11,756종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Incumbent Democrat Josh Harder commands trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability to retain California's 9th Congressional District seat following mid-decade redistricting that shifted the boundaries—encompassing San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and parts of Contra Costa counties—toward a stronger Democratic lean, erasing his narrow 2024 margin of under four points against Republican Kevin Lincoln.** Harder's unchallenged primary position contrasts with a fragmented Republican field of four challengers, including Lincoln, John McBride, Jim Shoemaker, and Parminder Singh, diluting GOP strength ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. This structural advantage, incumbency edge, and lack of recent scandals underpin the lopsided odds, though a consolidated Republican primary victor, national midterm wave favoring the opposition party, or unexpected Harder controversy could narrow the path.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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