New York’s 16th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18 and delivered a 71.6 percent victory for the Democratic incumbent in 2024. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic for 2026, reflecting consistent voter registration advantages and presidential results that favor Democrats by double-digit margins. The June 23 Democratic primary will determine the nominee, after which the general-election contest on November 3 faces limited Republican recruitment and fundraising. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic Party a 94.5 percent implied probability because structural factors and recent electoral history have produced few competitive openings. Late-cycle national shifts, an unusually strong Republican nominee, or an unforeseen scandal involving the eventual Democratic candidate remain the principal variables that could narrow the margin.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$35,148 거래량
$35,148 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
95%
공화당
1%
$35,148 거래량
$35,148 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$25,144 거래량
95%
공화당
$10,004 거래량
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 16th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18 and delivered a 71.6 percent victory for the Democratic incumbent in 2024. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic for 2026, reflecting consistent voter registration advantages and presidential results that favor Democrats by double-digit margins. The June 23 Democratic primary will determine the nominee, after which the general-election contest on November 3 faces limited Republican recruitment and fundraising. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic Party a 94.5 percent implied probability because structural factors and recent electoral history have produced few competitive openings. Late-cycle national shifts, an unusually strong Republican nominee, or an unforeseen scandal involving the eventual Democratic candidate remain the principal variables that could narrow the margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
거래량
$35,148종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 16th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18 and delivered a 71.6 percent victory for the Democratic incumbent in 2024. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic for 2026, reflecting consistent voter registration advantages and presidential results that favor Democrats by double-digit margins. The June 23 Democratic primary will determine the nominee, after which the general-election contest on November 3 faces limited Republican recruitment and fundraising. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic Party a 94.5 percent implied probability because structural factors and recent electoral history have produced few competitive openings. Late-cycle national shifts, an unusually strong Republican nominee, or an unforeseen scandal involving the eventual Democratic candidate remain the principal variables that could narrow the margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$35,148종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New York’s 16th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18 and delivered a 71.6 percent victory for the Democratic incumbent in 2024. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic for 2026, reflecting consistent voter registration advantages and presidential results that favor Democrats by double-digit margins. The June 23 Democratic primary will determine the nominee, after which the general-election contest on November 3 faces limited Republican recruitment and fundraising. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic Party a 94.5 percent implied probability because structural factors and recent electoral history have produced few competitive openings. Late-cycle national shifts, an unusually strong Republican nominee, or an unforeseen scandal involving the eventual Democratic candidate remain the principal variables that could narrow the margin.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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