Incumbent Republican Bruce Westerman faces Democrat James Russell in the November 2026 general election for Arkansas’s 4th congressional district. The seat’s R+20 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles underpin the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Westerman advanced unopposed through the March primary after securing more than 70 percent in the prior general election, while Russell defeated his primary opponent but enters the race with limited statewide name recognition. Fundraising reports show Westerman holding a substantial cash advantage. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though structural factors in this rural, conservative district have historically limited such shifts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$15,830 거래량
$15,830 거래량
2026.11.03
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
4%
$15,830 거래량
$15,830 거래량
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$9,581 거래량
94%
Democratic Party
$6,248 거래량
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Bruce Westerman faces Democrat James Russell in the November 2026 general election for Arkansas’s 4th congressional district. The seat’s R+20 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles underpin the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Westerman advanced unopposed through the March primary after securing more than 70 percent in the prior general election, while Russell defeated his primary opponent but enters the race with limited statewide name recognition. Fundraising reports show Westerman holding a substantial cash advantage. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though structural factors in this rural, conservative district have historically limited such shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
거래량
$15,830종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Bruce Westerman faces Democrat James Russell in the November 2026 general election for Arkansas’s 4th congressional district. The seat’s R+20 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles underpin the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Westerman advanced unopposed through the March primary after securing more than 70 percent in the prior general election, while Russell defeated his primary opponent but enters the race with limited statewide name recognition. Fundraising reports show Westerman holding a substantial cash advantage. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though structural factors in this rural, conservative district have historically limited such shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$15,830종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Bruce Westerman faces Democrat James Russell in the November 2026 general election for Arkansas’s 4th congressional district. The seat’s R+20 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles underpin the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Westerman advanced unopposed through the March primary after securing more than 70 percent in the prior general election, while Russell defeated his primary opponent but enters the race with limited statewide name recognition. Fundraising reports show Westerman holding a substantial cash advantage. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though structural factors in this rural, conservative district have historically limited such shifts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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