Market icon
政治·トランプ

トランプ氏は2027年までに教育省を廃止するか？

Market icon
政治·トランプ

トランプ氏は2027年までに教育省を廃止するか？

Dec 31

Dec 31

はい

5% chance
Polymarket
NEW

はい

5% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of Education ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal educational programs managed by the department, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 95.5% implied probability that President Trump will not fully end the Department of Education before 2027, driven by entrenched legislative barriers requiring congressional approval to abolish a cabinet-level agency. A March 2025 executive order directed steps toward closure by shifting programs to states and other departments, leading to mass layoffs, interagency transfers like student loans to Treasury, and recent headquarters relocation to a smaller office announced March 27, 2026. However, Congress has repeatedly funded the agency, including a $79 billion fiscal 2026 appropriations bill signed in February, rejecting abolition calls amid competing priorities. Realistic shifts could arise from unexpected bipartisan legislation before year-end or post-midterm dynamics, though historical precedents for dissolving cabinet departments remain rare.

Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 95.5% implied probability that President Trump will not fully end the Department of Education before 2027, driven by entrenched legislative barriers requiring congressional approval to abolish a cabinet-level agency. A March 2025 executive order directed steps toward closure by shifting programs to states and other departments, leading to mass layoffs, interagency transfers like student loans to Treasury, and recent headquarters relocation to a smaller office announced March 27, 2026. However, Congress has repeatedly funded the agency, including a $79 billion fiscal 2026 appropriations bill signed in February, rejecting abolition calls amid competing priorities. Realistic shifts could arise from unexpected bipartisan legislation before year-end or post-midterm dynamics, though historical precedents for dissolving cabinet departments remain rare.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of Education ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal educational programs managed by the department, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 95.5% implied probability that President Trump will not fully end the Department of Education before 2027, driven by entrenched legislative barriers requiring congressional approval to abolish a cabinet-level agency. A March 2025 executive order directed steps toward closure by shifting programs to states and other departments, leading to mass layoffs, interagency transfers like student loans to Treasury, and recent headquarters relocation to a smaller office announced March 27, 2026. However, Congress has repeatedly funded the agency, including a $79 billion fiscal 2026 appropriations bill signed in February, rejecting abolition calls amid competing priorities. Realistic shifts could arise from unexpected bipartisan legislation before year-end or post-midterm dynamics, though historical precedents for dissolving cabinet departments remain rare.

Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 95.5% implied probability that President Trump will not fully end the Department of Education before 2027, driven by entrenched legislative barriers requiring congressional approval to abolish a cabinet-level agency. A March 2025 executive order directed steps toward closure by shifting programs to states and other departments, leading to mass layoffs, interagency transfers like student loans to Treasury, and recent headquarters relocation to a smaller office announced March 27, 2026. However, Congress has repeatedly funded the agency, including a $79 billion fiscal 2026 appropriations bill signed in February, rejecting abolition calls amid competing priorities. Realistic shifts could arise from unexpected bipartisan legislation before year-end or post-midterm dynamics, though historical precedents for dissolving cabinet departments remain rare.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「トランプ氏は2027年までに教育省を廃止するか？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「トランプは2027年までに教育省を廃止しますか？」で5%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、5¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に5%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「トランプ氏は2027年までに教育省を廃止するか？」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Nov 19, 2025開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「トランプ氏は2027年までに教育省を廃止するか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「トランプ氏は2027年までに教育省を廃止するか？」の現在のリーダーは「トランプは2027年までに教育省を廃止しますか？」でわずか5%です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「トランプ氏は2027年までに教育省を廃止するか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。