Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 96.7% that the US will not conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31, driven by the Biden administration's consistent emphasis on de-escalation and diplomatic pressure over direct cyber or kinetic escalation against Tehran. Recent US responses to Iran-backed Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and militia strikes on US forces in Iraq and Syria have involved targeted airstrikes on proxy groups and naval interdictions, not sovereign Iranian cyber operations, aligning with historical patterns of calibrated deterrence short of major confrontation. No official statements, intelligence leaks, or congressional authorizations signal preparations for such an action. Realistic shifts could stem from a severe Iranian provocation, like direct attacks on US soil or allies triggering executive orders, though institutional barriers and election-year caution make this unlikely absent a crisis.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$341,145 Vol.
$341,145 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
はい
$341,145 Vol.
$341,145 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 96.7% that the US will not conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31, driven by the Biden administration's consistent emphasis on de-escalation and diplomatic pressure over direct cyber or kinetic escalation against Tehran. Recent US responses to Iran-backed Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and militia strikes on US forces in Iraq and Syria have involved targeted airstrikes on proxy groups and naval interdictions, not sovereign Iranian cyber operations, aligning with historical patterns of calibrated deterrence short of major confrontation. No official statements, intelligence leaks, or congressional authorizations signal preparations for such an action. Realistic shifts could stem from a severe Iranian provocation, like direct attacks on US soil or allies triggering executive orders, though institutional barriers and election-year caution make this unlikely absent a crisis.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jan 23, 2026, 5:16 PM ET
音量
$341,145終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 23, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 96.7% that the US will not conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31, driven by the Biden administration's consistent emphasis on de-escalation and diplomatic pressure over direct cyber or kinetic escalation against Tehran. Recent US responses to Iran-backed Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and militia strikes on US forces in Iraq and Syria have involved targeted airstrikes on proxy groups and naval interdictions, not sovereign Iranian cyber operations, aligning with historical patterns of calibrated deterrence short of major confrontation. No official statements, intelligence leaks, or congressional authorizations signal preparations for such an action. Realistic shifts could stem from a severe Iranian provocation, like direct attacks on US soil or allies triggering executive orders, though institutional barriers and election-year caution make this unlikely absent a crisis.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$341,145終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 23, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 96.7% that the US will not conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31, driven by the Biden administration's consistent emphasis on de-escalation and diplomatic pressure over direct cyber or kinetic escalation against Tehran. Recent US responses to Iran-backed Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and militia strikes on US forces in Iraq and Syria have involved targeted airstrikes on proxy groups and naval interdictions, not sovereign Iranian cyber operations, aligning with historical patterns of calibrated deterrence short of major confrontation. No official statements, intelligence leaks, or congressional authorizations signal preparations for such an action. Realistic shifts could stem from a severe Iranian provocation, like direct attacks on US soil or allies triggering executive orders, though institutional barriers and election-year caution make this unlikely absent a crisis.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問