Trader consensus favors United Russia at 68.5% to gain the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma election, reflecting its incumbency advantage, control of most single-member constituencies, and projected retention of a constitutional majority despite recent poll declines amid inflation and rising prices. New People's 22.7% implied probability stems from its surge to second place in VTsIOM polls last week (10.4-13.4% support), up from prior lows, as Kremlin-aligned pollsters elevate the party—starting from just 15 seats—as a systemic alternative to traditional opposition like LDPR and KPRF, potentially yielding the largest net gains via party-list proportional representation. Lower odds for others highlight their stagnant ratings around 6-10%. Redistricting and regional dynamics add uncertainty ahead of the vote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日統一ロシア（ER） 69%
ニューピープル（NL） 22.1%
ロシア自由民主党（LDPR） 6.3%
ロシア連邦共産党（KPRF） 1.3%
$4,401,429 Vol.
$4,401,429 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
統一ロシア（ER）
69%
ニューピープル（NL）
22%
ロシア自由民主党（LDPR）
6%
ロシア連邦共産党（KPRF）
1%
公正ロシア・ための真実（SRZP）
1%
ロジーナ
<1%
シビック・プラットフォーム（GP）
<1%
統一ロシア（ER） 69%
ニューピープル（NL） 22.1%
ロシア自由民主党（LDPR） 6.3%
ロシア連邦共産党（KPRF） 1.3%
$4,401,429 Vol.
$4,401,429 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
統一ロシア（ER）
$1,222,085 Vol.
69%
ニューピープル（NL）
$277,186 Vol.
22%
ロシア自由民主党（LDPR）
$2,034,578 Vol.
6%
ロシア連邦共産党（KPRF）
$254,852 Vol.
1%
公正ロシア・ための真実（SRZP）
$226,929 Vol.
1%
ロジーナ
$196,173 Vol.
<1%
シビック・プラットフォーム（GP）
$189,627 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Trader consensus favors United Russia at 68.5% to gain the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma election, reflecting its incumbency advantage, control of most single-member constituencies, and projected retention of a constitutional majority despite recent poll declines amid inflation and rising prices. New People's 22.7% implied probability stems from its surge to second place in VTsIOM polls last week (10.4-13.4% support), up from prior lows, as Kremlin-aligned pollsters elevate the party—starting from just 15 seats—as a systemic alternative to traditional opposition like LDPR and KPRF, potentially yielding the largest net gains via party-list proportional representation. Lower odds for others highlight their stagnant ratings around 6-10%. Redistricting and regional dynamics add uncertainty ahead of the vote.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
マーケット開始日： Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
音量
$4,401,429終了日
Sep 20, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Trader consensus favors United Russia at 68.5% to gain the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma election, reflecting its incumbency advantage, control of most single-member constituencies, and projected retention of a constitutional majority despite recent poll declines amid inflation and rising prices. New People's 22.7% implied probability stems from its surge to second place in VTsIOM polls last week (10.4-13.4% support), up from prior lows, as Kremlin-aligned pollsters elevate the party—starting from just 15 seats—as a systemic alternative to traditional opposition like LDPR and KPRF, potentially yielding the largest net gains via party-list proportional representation. Lower odds for others highlight their stagnant ratings around 6-10%. Redistricting and regional dynamics add uncertainty ahead of the vote.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
音量
$4,401,429終了日
Sep 20, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors United Russia at 68.5% to gain the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma election, reflecting its incumbency advantage, control of most single-member constituencies, and projected retention of a constitutional majority despite recent poll declines amid inflation and rising prices. New People's 22.7% implied probability stems from its surge to second place in VTsIOM polls last week (10.4-13.4% support), up from prior lows, as Kremlin-aligned pollsters elevate the party—starting from just 15 seats—as a systemic alternative to traditional opposition like LDPR and KPRF, potentially yielding the largest net gains via party-list proportional representation. Lower odds for others highlight their stagnant ratings around 6-10%. Redistricting and regional dynamics add uncertainty ahead of the vote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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