Amid the US-Israel war on Iran that began with surprise airstrikes on February 28, 2026, Iran has retaliated through multiple ballistic missile waves targeting US bases, Israeli cities, and regional assets, including a confirmed strike on an oil tanker off Dubai on March 31 and claims of hits on American facilities as recently as March 30. These actions, amid over 3,000 Israeli strikes and US naval losses, have defined trader consensus on Polymarket, with probabilities reflecting verified attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure like UAE's Habshan Field or Qatar's Ras Laffan amid heightened Strait of Hormuz tensions. On April 1, US signals of a swift end to operations and Iran's conditional openness to de-escalation via intermediaries introduce resolution uncertainty, pending official confirmations of targets struck by the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$511,599 Vol.
ディモナ（シモン・ペレス ネゲヴ原子力研究センター）
いいえ
ルワイス製油所
はい
ブルジュ・ハリファ
いいえ
ガワール油田
いいえ
サファニヤ油田
いいえ
アブカイク石油処理施設
いいえ
ミナ・アルアフマディ製油所
はい
アルズール製油所
いいえ
Leviathan Field
No
Khurais Field
No
ラス・タヌラ
いいえ
East–West Pipeline
No
ハブシャン油田／処理コンプレックス
いいえ
Ras Laffan Industrial City
No
$511,599 Vol.
ディモナ（シモン・ペレス ネゲヴ原子力研究センター）
$273,213 Vol.
いいえ
ルワイス製油所
$0 Vol.
はい
ブルジュ・ハリファ
$2,090 Vol.
いいえ
ガワール油田
$36,045 Vol.
いいえ
サファニヤ油田
$44,864 Vol.
いいえ
アブカイク石油処理施設
$46,287 Vol.
いいえ
ミナ・アルアフマディ製油所
$0 Vol.
はい
アルズール製油所
$80,327 Vol.
いいえ
Leviathan Field
$1,484 Vol.
No
Khurais Field
$5,035 Vol.
No
ラス・タヌラ
$5,504 Vol.
いいえ
East–West Pipeline
$2,036 Vol.
No
ハブシャン油田／処理コンプレックス
$2,452 Vol.
いいえ
Ras Laffan Industrial City
$12,262 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid the US-Israel war on Iran that began with surprise airstrikes on February 28, 2026, Iran has retaliated through multiple ballistic missile waves targeting US bases, Israeli cities, and regional assets, including a confirmed strike on an oil tanker off Dubai on March 31 and claims of hits on American facilities as recently as March 30. These actions, amid over 3,000 Israeli strikes and US naval losses, have defined trader consensus on Polymarket, with probabilities reflecting verified attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure like UAE's Habshan Field or Qatar's Ras Laffan amid heightened Strait of Hormuz tensions. On April 1, US signals of a swift end to operations and Iran's conditional openness to de-escalation via intermediaries introduce resolution uncertainty, pending official confirmations of targets struck by the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
マーケット開始日： Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
音量
$511,599マーケット開始日
Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid the US-Israel war on Iran that began with surprise airstrikes on February 28, 2026, Iran has retaliated through multiple ballistic missile waves targeting US bases, Israeli cities, and regional assets, including a confirmed strike on an oil tanker off Dubai on March 31 and claims of hits on American facilities as recently as March 30. These actions, amid over 3,000 Israeli strikes and US naval losses, have defined trader consensus on Polymarket, with probabilities reflecting verified attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure like UAE's Habshan Field or Qatar's Ras Laffan amid heightened Strait of Hormuz tensions. On April 1, US signals of a swift end to operations and Iran's conditional openness to de-escalation via intermediaries introduce resolution uncertainty, pending official confirmations of targets struck by the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
音量
$511,599マーケット開始日
Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
Amid the US-Israel war on Iran that began with surprise airstrikes on February 28, 2026, Iran has retaliated through multiple ballistic missile waves targeting US bases, Israeli cities, and regional assets, including a confirmed strike on an oil tanker off Dubai on March 31 and claims of hits on American facilities as recently as March 30. These actions, amid over 3,000 Israeli strikes and US naval losses, have defined trader consensus on Polymarket, with probabilities reflecting verified attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure like UAE's Habshan Field or Qatar's Ras Laffan amid heightened Strait of Hormuz tensions. On April 1, US signals of a swift end to operations and Iran's conditional openness to de-escalation via intermediaries introduce resolution uncertainty, pending official confirmations of targets struck by the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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