Following Israel's targeted airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26—described by Tehran as causing limited damage—Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei vowed a response, yet official statements emphasize restraint to avoid broader escalation amid ongoing proxy conflicts with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen. This comes after Iran's large-scale missile barrage against Israel on October 1, retaliation for assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. Diplomatic tensions persist with no ceasefire talks advancing, while the U.S. presidential election on November 5 could shift American military aid to Israel and sanctions pressure on Iran. Traders weigh Iran's historical pattern of delayed, calibrated reprisals against risks of direct confrontation by March 31.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$439,951 Vol.
ディモナ（シモン・ペレス ネゲヴ原子力研究センター）
3%
ブルジュ・ハリファ
4%
ガワール油田
7%
サファニヤ油田
9%
アブカイク石油処理施設
11%
アルズール製油所
10%
Leviathan Field
9%
Khurais Field
11%
ラス・タヌラ
11%
East–West Pipeline
9%
ハブシャン油田／処理コンプレックス
11%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
18%
$439,951 Vol.
ディモナ（シモン・ペレス ネゲヴ原子力研究センター）
$244,108 Vol.
3%
ブルジュ・ハリファ
$1,064 Vol.
4%
ガワール油田
$30,269 Vol.
7%
サファニヤ油田
$39,646 Vol.
9%
アブカイク石油処理施設
$38,111 Vol.
11%
アルズール製油所
$73,419 Vol.
10%
Leviathan Field
$675 Vol.
9%
Khurais Field
$4,312 Vol.
11%
ラス・タヌラ
$4,179 Vol.
11%
East–West Pipeline
$1,206 Vol.
9%
ハブシャン油田／処理コンプレックス
$646 Vol.
11%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
$2,315 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Following Israel's targeted airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26—described by Tehran as causing limited damage—Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei vowed a response, yet official statements emphasize restraint to avoid broader escalation amid ongoing proxy conflicts with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen. This comes after Iran's large-scale missile barrage against Israel on October 1, retaliation for assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. Diplomatic tensions persist with no ceasefire talks advancing, while the U.S. presidential election on November 5 could shift American military aid to Israel and sanctions pressure on Iran. Traders weigh Iran's historical pattern of delayed, calibrated reprisals against risks of direct confrontation by March 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
マーケット開始日： Feb 28, 2026, 7:03 PM ET
音量
$439,951マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Following Israel's targeted airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26—described by Tehran as causing limited damage—Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei vowed a response, yet official statements emphasize restraint to avoid broader escalation amid ongoing proxy conflicts with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen. This comes after Iran's large-scale missile barrage against Israel on October 1, retaliation for assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. Diplomatic tensions persist with no ceasefire talks advancing, while the U.S. presidential election on November 5 could shift American military aid to Israel and sanctions pressure on Iran. Traders weigh Iran's historical pattern of delayed, calibrated reprisals against risks of direct confrontation by March 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
音量
$439,951マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following Israel's targeted airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26—described by Tehran as causing limited damage—Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei vowed a response, yet official statements emphasize restraint to avoid broader escalation amid ongoing proxy conflicts with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen. This comes after Iran's large-scale missile barrage against Israel on October 1, retaliation for assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. Diplomatic tensions persist with no ceasefire talks advancing, while the U.S. presidential election on November 5 could shift American military aid to Israel and sanctions pressure on Iran. Traders weigh Iran's historical pattern of delayed, calibrated reprisals against risks of direct confrontation by March 31.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問