Ongoing US-Iran hostilities, ignited by US and Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, persist despite diplomatic overtures, with trader sentiment shaped by faltering ceasefire efforts. The Trump administration's 15-point proposal, delivered via intermediaries like Pakistan on March 24, was rejected by Tehran as "maximalist" and met with a counterproposal demanding reparations; Iran denies direct negotiations. Recent escalations include US-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and steel facilities yesterday, prompting Iranian missile attacks wounding US troops at a Saudi base hours ago. Trump extended a pause on energy infrastructure strikes until April 6, but Israel's intensified operations signal hurdles to de-escalation amid proxy threats from Houthis and Hezbollah.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$56,564,785 Vol.
Apr 15, 2026
3月31日
3%
4月7日
13%
4月15日
23%
4月30日
40%
5月31日
55%
6月30日
63%
12月31日
76%
$56,564,785 Vol.
3月31日
$35,695,466 Vol.
3%
4月7日
$894,302 Vol.
13%
4月15日
$5,480,347 Vol.
23%
4月30日
$6,152,970 Vol.
40%
5月31日
$2,165,815 Vol.
55%
6月30日
$2,236,648 Vol.
63%
12月31日
$460,838 Vol.
76%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Ongoing US-Iran hostilities, ignited by US and Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, persist despite diplomatic overtures, with trader sentiment shaped by faltering ceasefire efforts. The Trump administration's 15-point proposal, delivered via intermediaries like Pakistan on March 24, was rejected by Tehran as "maximalist" and met with a counterproposal demanding reparations; Iran denies direct negotiations. Recent escalations include US-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and steel facilities yesterday, prompting Iranian missile attacks wounding US troops at a Saudi base hours ago. Trump extended a pause on energy infrastructure strikes until April 6, but Israel's intensified operations signal hurdles to de-escalation amid proxy threats from Houthis and Hezbollah.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
マーケット開始日： Mar 12, 2026, 12:44 PM ET
音量
$56,564,785マーケット開始日
Mar 12, 2026, 12:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Ongoing US-Iran hostilities, ignited by US and Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, persist despite diplomatic overtures, with trader sentiment shaped by faltering ceasefire efforts. The Trump administration's 15-point proposal, delivered via intermediaries like Pakistan on March 24, was rejected by Tehran as "maximalist" and met with a counterproposal demanding reparations; Iran denies direct negotiations. Recent escalations include US-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and steel facilities yesterday, prompting Iranian missile attacks wounding US troops at a Saudi base hours ago. Trump extended a pause on energy infrastructure strikes until April 6, but Israel's intensified operations signal hurdles to de-escalation amid proxy threats from Houthis and Hezbollah.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
音量
$56,564,785マーケット開始日
Mar 12, 2026, 12:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran hostilities, ignited by US and Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, persist despite diplomatic overtures, with trader sentiment shaped by faltering ceasefire efforts. The Trump administration's 15-point proposal, delivered via intermediaries like Pakistan on March 24, was rejected by Tehran as "maximalist" and met with a counterproposal demanding reparations; Iran denies direct negotiations. Recent escalations include US-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and steel facilities yesterday, prompting Iranian missile attacks wounding US troops at a Saudi base hours ago. Trump extended a pause on energy infrastructure strikes until April 6, but Israel's intensified operations signal hurdles to de-escalation amid proxy threats from Houthis and Hezbollah.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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