Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors Liberal candidate Danielle Martin in the University—Rosedale federal by-election, implying near-certainty of victory on April 13, driven by the riding's entrenched Liberal dominance—Chrystia Freeland secured 64% in the 2025 general election—and Martin's profile as a prominent local family physician and health leader. Recent momentum includes Prime Minister Mark Carney's endorsement and door-knocking on April 4, alongside robust Liberal canvassing as advance polls opened April 3. Conservative Don Hodgson and NDP's Serena Purdy trail far behind, mirroring weak prior showings. While barriers to an upset are high in this urban Toronto district, late scandals, voter turnout anomalies, or national polling shifts could theoretically challenge the outcome before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Danielle Martin 99.5%
Imran Khan 1.0%
Don Hodgson <1%
Samuel Baxter <1%
$52,047 Vol.
$52,047 Vol.
Danielle Martin
100%
Imran Khan
1%
Don Hodgson
<1%
Samuel Baxter
<1%
Andy D’Andrea
<1%
Leslie Bory
<1%
Bill Whatcott
<1%
Serena Purdy
<1%
Andrew Massey
<1%
Raiden DeDominicis
<1%
Danielle Martin 99.5%
Imran Khan 1.0%
Don Hodgson <1%
Samuel Baxter <1%
$52,047 Vol.
$52,047 Vol.
Danielle Martin
100%
Imran Khan
1%
Don Hodgson
<1%
Samuel Baxter
<1%
Andy D’Andrea
<1%
Leslie Bory
<1%
Bill Whatcott
<1%
Serena Purdy
<1%
Andrew Massey
<1%
Raiden DeDominicis
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the University—Rosedale, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
マーケット開始日： Apr 3, 2026, 7:46 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the University—Rosedale, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors Liberal candidate Danielle Martin in the University—Rosedale federal by-election, implying near-certainty of victory on April 13, driven by the riding's entrenched Liberal dominance—Chrystia Freeland secured 64% in the 2025 general election—and Martin's profile as a prominent local family physician and health leader. Recent momentum includes Prime Minister Mark Carney's endorsement and door-knocking on April 4, alongside robust Liberal canvassing as advance polls opened April 3. Conservative Don Hodgson and NDP's Serena Purdy trail far behind, mirroring weak prior showings. While barriers to an upset are high in this urban Toronto district, late scandals, voter turnout anomalies, or national polling shifts could theoretically challenge the outcome before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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