Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors Liberal candidate Danielle Martin at near-certainty odds, reflecting her dominant position in the safe urban Toronto riding of University—Rosedale, vacated by Chrystia Freeland's resignation. Recent polls project her at 60-64% support, far ahead of Conservative Don Hodgson (around 23%) and NDP's Serena Purdy (10%), bolstered by Martin's profile as a respected family physician and health advocate amid strong Liberal Party mobilization. Advance polls opened April 3 with high-profile endorsements from leader Mark Carney on April 4, signaling robust turnout efforts in this low-stakes by-election. While commanding, an upset could arise from a late scandal, suppressed Liberal turnout, or unexpected opposition surge before April 13 election day, though historical precedents in similar strongholds make such shifts unlikely.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Danielle Martin 99.4%
Don Hodgson <1%
Andy D’Andrea <1%
Imran Khan <1%
$52,203 Vol.
$52,203 Vol.
Danielle Martin
99%
Don Hodgson
<1%
Andy D’Andrea
<1%
Imran Khan
<1%
Samuel Baxter
<1%
Leslie Bory
<1%
Bill Whatcott
<1%
Serena Purdy
<1%
Andrew Massey
<1%
Raiden DeDominicis
<1%
Danielle Martin 99.4%
Don Hodgson <1%
Andy D’Andrea <1%
Imran Khan <1%
$52,203 Vol.
$52,203 Vol.
Danielle Martin
99%
Don Hodgson
<1%
Andy D’Andrea
<1%
Imran Khan
<1%
Samuel Baxter
<1%
Leslie Bory
<1%
Bill Whatcott
<1%
Serena Purdy
<1%
Andrew Massey
<1%
Raiden DeDominicis
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the University—Rosedale, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
マーケット開始日： Apr 3, 2026, 7:46 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the University—Rosedale, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors Liberal candidate Danielle Martin at near-certainty odds, reflecting her dominant position in the safe urban Toronto riding of University—Rosedale, vacated by Chrystia Freeland's resignation. Recent polls project her at 60-64% support, far ahead of Conservative Don Hodgson (around 23%) and NDP's Serena Purdy (10%), bolstered by Martin's profile as a respected family physician and health advocate amid strong Liberal Party mobilization. Advance polls opened April 3 with high-profile endorsements from leader Mark Carney on April 4, signaling robust turnout efforts in this low-stakes by-election. While commanding, an upset could arise from a late scandal, suppressed Liberal turnout, or unexpected opposition surge before April 13 election day, though historical precedents in similar strongholds make such shifts unlikely.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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