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地政学·デリバティブ

2027年までに__ 3月31日までにトランプがグリーンランドを買収する確率は？

Market icon
地政学·デリバティブ

2027年までに__ 3月31日までにトランプがグリーンランドを買収する確率は？

Mar 31

Dec 31

Mar 31

Dec 31

$1,031,716 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$1,031,716 Vol.

Polymarket

30％

$1,031,716 Vol.

<1%

50％

$0 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the “Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?” market (https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the “Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027-over-30-2 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the “Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?” market (https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the “Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027-over-50 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.President-elect Donald Trump reignited his 2019 proposal to acquire Greenland in late December 2024 Truth Social posts, framing it as vital for U.S. national security and citing parallels to interests in the Panama Canal and Canada. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen swiftly rejected the overture as "absurd," while Greenland Premier Múte Egede affirmed the island's autonomy and declared it "not for sale." These firm diplomatic rebukes, combined with Greenland's self-governing status under Denmark—requiring unlikely referendums and international approvals—anchor trader consensus at low implied probabilities for acquisition before 2027. Trump's January 20, 2025, inauguration could prompt early foreign policy signals, but legal and sovereign barriers remain formidable absent major geopolitical shifts.

President-elect Donald Trump reignited his 2019 proposal to acquire Greenland in late December 2024 Truth Social posts, framing it as vital for U.S. national security and citing parallels to interests in the Panama Canal and Canada. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen swiftly rejected the overture as "absurd," while Greenland Premier Múte Egede affirmed the island's autonomy and declared it "not for sale." These firm diplomatic rebukes, combined with Greenland's self-governing status under Denmark—requiring unlikely referendums and international approvals—anchor trader consensus at low implied probabilities for acquisition before 2027. Trump's January 20, 2025, inauguration could prompt early foreign policy signals, but legal and sovereign barriers remain formidable absent major geopolitical shifts.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the “Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?” market (https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the “Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027-over-30-2 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the “Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?” market (https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the “Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027-over-50 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.President-elect Donald Trump reignited his 2019 proposal to acquire Greenland in late December 2024 Truth Social posts, framing it as vital for U.S. national security and citing parallels to interests in the Panama Canal and Canada. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen swiftly rejected the overture as "absurd," while Greenland Premier Múte Egede affirmed the island's autonomy and declared it "not for sale." These firm diplomatic rebukes, combined with Greenland's self-governing status under Denmark—requiring unlikely referendums and international approvals—anchor trader consensus at low implied probabilities for acquisition before 2027. Trump's January 20, 2025, inauguration could prompt early foreign policy signals, but legal and sovereign barriers remain formidable absent major geopolitical shifts.

President-elect Donald Trump reignited his 2019 proposal to acquire Greenland in late December 2024 Truth Social posts, framing it as vital for U.S. national security and citing parallels to interests in the Panama Canal and Canada. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen swiftly rejected the overture as "absurd," while Greenland Premier Múte Egede affirmed the island's autonomy and declared it "not for sale." These firm diplomatic rebukes, combined with Greenland's self-governing status under Denmark—requiring unlikely referendums and international approvals—anchor trader consensus at low implied probabilities for acquisition before 2027. Trump's January 20, 2025, inauguration could prompt early foreign policy signals, but legal and sovereign barriers remain formidable absent major geopolitical shifts.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「2027年までに__ 3月31日までにトランプがグリーンランドを買収する確率は？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「30％」で0%、次いで「50％」が0%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、0¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に0%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「2027年までに__ 3月31日までにトランプがグリーンランドを買収する確率は？」は$1 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Jan 9, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「2027年までに__ 3月31日までにトランプがグリーンランドを買収する確率は？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「2027年までに__ 3月31日までにトランプがグリーンランドを買収する確率は？」の現在のリーダーは「30％」でわずか0%、「50％」が0%で僅差です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「2027年までに__ 3月31日までにトランプがグリーンランドを買収する確率は？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。