Incumbent House Majority Leader Steve Scalise's reelection bid in Louisiana's 1st Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with a Cook PVI of R+19, anchors trader consensus at 92.5% for a GOP hold, reflecting his dominant fundraising ($5.5 million cash on hand) and history of lopsided wins like 67% in 2024. February qualifying locked in a low-threat Republican primary against Randall Arrington and a weak Democratic field of Lauren Jewett and Jim Long, both minimally funded. With no recent polling or upsets in the past 30 days, markets price in minimal risk ahead of the May 16 closed primaries. Late-breaking scandals, Scalise health issues, or a primary surprise could challenge this positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$22,746 Vol.
$22,746 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
93%
民主党
7%
$22,746 Vol.
$22,746 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$11,698 Vol.
93%
民主党
$11,047 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent House Majority Leader Steve Scalise's reelection bid in Louisiana's 1st Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with a Cook PVI of R+19, anchors trader consensus at 92.5% for a GOP hold, reflecting his dominant fundraising ($5.5 million cash on hand) and history of lopsided wins like 67% in 2024. February qualifying locked in a low-threat Republican primary against Randall Arrington and a weak Democratic field of Lauren Jewett and Jim Long, both minimally funded. With no recent polling or upsets in the past 30 days, markets price in minimal risk ahead of the May 16 closed primaries. Late-breaking scandals, Scalise health issues, or a primary surprise could challenge this positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$22,746終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent House Majority Leader Steve Scalise's reelection bid in Louisiana's 1st Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with a Cook PVI of R+19, anchors trader consensus at 92.5% for a GOP hold, reflecting his dominant fundraising ($5.5 million cash on hand) and history of lopsided wins like 67% in 2024. February qualifying locked in a low-threat Republican primary against Randall Arrington and a weak Democratic field of Lauren Jewett and Jim Long, both minimally funded. With no recent polling or upsets in the past 30 days, markets price in minimal risk ahead of the May 16 closed primaries. Late-breaking scandals, Scalise health issues, or a primary surprise could challenge this positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$22,746終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent House Majority Leader Steve Scalise's reelection bid in Louisiana's 1st Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with a Cook PVI of R+19, anchors trader consensus at 92.5% for a GOP hold, reflecting his dominant fundraising ($5.5 million cash on hand) and history of lopsided wins like 67% in 2024. February qualifying locked in a low-threat Republican primary against Randall Arrington and a weak Democratic field of Lauren Jewett and Jim Long, both minimally funded. With no recent polling or upsets in the past 30 days, markets price in minimal risk ahead of the May 16 closed primaries. Late-breaking scandals, Scalise health issues, or a primary surprise could challenge this positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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