Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in Warsaw's highest temperature on April 5, with implied probabilities evenly spread across outcomes from 12°C or below to 22°C or higher, driven by divergent short-range forecasts from ECMWF and GFS ensembles showing means near 14-16°C but wide spreads up to 10°C variance. Recent IMGW weekly outlook through April 5 highlights persistent cool northerly flows over central Poland, capping highs around 9-13°C amid partly cloudy skies and light precipitation risks, tempering warmer bets while low-end outcomes gain from potential cold air advection. Early spring climatology adds volatility, with historical April highs averaging 13°C but prone to 5-20°C swings; key differentiators include cloud cover evolution and any ridge breakdown. Watch daily model updates from IMGW and ECMWF for resolution shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 5?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 5?
18°C 19%
19°C 18%
16°C 17%
17°C 17%
新規
新規
2026/04/05
12°C or below
10%
13°C
3%
14°C
9%
15°C
12%
16°C
17%
17°C
17%
18°C
25%
19°C
18%
20°C
12%
21°C
5%
22°C or higher
8%
18°C 19%
19°C 18%
16°C 17%
17°C 17%
新規
新規
2026/04/05
12°C or below
$11 Vol.
10%
13°C
$0 Vol.
3%
14°C
$26 Vol.
9%
15°C
$0 Vol.
12%
16°C
$0 Vol.
17%
17°C
$0 Vol.
17%
18°C
$6 Vol.
25%
19°C
$19 Vol.
18%
20°C
$0 Vol.
12%
21°C
$0 Vol.
5%
22°C or higher
$5 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in Warsaw's highest temperature on April 5, with implied probabilities evenly spread across outcomes from 12°C or below to 22°C or higher, driven by divergent short-range forecasts from ECMWF and GFS ensembles showing means near 14-16°C but wide spreads up to 10°C variance. Recent IMGW weekly outlook through April 5 highlights persistent cool northerly flows over central Poland, capping highs around 9-13°C amid partly cloudy skies and light precipitation risks, tempering warmer bets while low-end outcomes gain from potential cold air advection. Early spring climatology adds volatility, with historical April highs averaging 13°C but prone to 5-20°C swings; key differentiators include cloud cover evolution and any ridge breakdown. Watch daily model updates from IMGW and ECMWF for resolution shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 1, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
音量
$68終了日
2026/04/05マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 6:13 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in Warsaw's highest temperature on April 5, with implied probabilities evenly spread across outcomes from 12°C or below to 22°C or higher, driven by divergent short-range forecasts from ECMWF and GFS ensembles showing means near 14-16°C but wide spreads up to 10°C variance. Recent IMGW weekly outlook through April 5 highlights persistent cool northerly flows over central Poland, capping highs around 9-13°C amid partly cloudy skies and light precipitation risks, tempering warmer bets while low-end outcomes gain from potential cold air advection. Early spring climatology adds volatility, with historical April highs averaging 13°C but prone to 5-20°C swings; key differentiators include cloud cover evolution and any ridge breakdown. Watch daily model updates from IMGW and ECMWF for resolution shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$68終了日
2026/04/05マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 6:13 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in Warsaw's highest temperature on April 5, with implied probabilities evenly spread across outcomes from 12°C or below to 22°C or higher, driven by divergent short-range forecasts from ECMWF and GFS ensembles showing means near 14-16°C but wide spreads up to 10°C variance. Recent IMGW weekly outlook through April 5 highlights persistent cool northerly flows over central Poland, capping highs around 9-13°C amid partly cloudy skies and light precipitation risks, tempering warmer bets while low-end outcomes gain from potential cold air advection. Early spring climatology adds volatility, with historical April highs averaging 13°C but prone to 5-20°C swings; key differentiators include cloud cover evolution and any ridge breakdown. Watch daily model updates from IMGW and ECMWF for resolution shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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