Trader consensus on Polymarket shows even market-implied probabilities across outcomes from 6°C or below to 16°C or higher for Seoul's highest temperature on April 5, highlighting genuine uncertainty typical of early spring transitions. Korea Meteorological Administration medium-range outlooks project highs of 17–21°C through early April amid retreating Siberian highs and southerly flows, yet ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF diverge by 5–10°C due to potential cold fronts or stalled highs influencing cloud cover and wind patterns. Historical data places average April 5 highs near 15°C with high day-to-day variability from jet stream shifts. KMA daily briefings and model updates through April 4 will clarify intensification risks or cooling scenarios driving trader repositioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Seoul on April 5?
Highest temperature in Seoul on April 5?
16°C or higher 26%
13°C 20%
12°C 18%
11°C 17%
新規
新規
2026/04/05
6°C or below
16%
7°C
15%
8°C
15%
9°C
15%
10°C
17%
11°C
17%
12°C
18%
13°C
20%
14°C
16%
15°C
14%
16°C or higher
26%
16°C or higher 26%
13°C 20%
12°C 18%
11°C 17%
新規
新規
2026/04/05
6°C or below
$0 Vol.
16%
7°C
$0 Vol.
15%
8°C
$0 Vol.
15%
9°C
$0 Vol.
15%
10°C
$0 Vol.
17%
11°C
$0 Vol.
17%
12°C
$0 Vol.
18%
13°C
$0 Vol.
20%
14°C
$0 Vol.
16%
15°C
$0 Vol.
14%
16°C or higher
$5 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket shows even market-implied probabilities across outcomes from 6°C or below to 16°C or higher for Seoul's highest temperature on April 5, highlighting genuine uncertainty typical of early spring transitions. Korea Meteorological Administration medium-range outlooks project highs of 17–21°C through early April amid retreating Siberian highs and southerly flows, yet ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF diverge by 5–10°C due to potential cold fronts or stalled highs influencing cloud cover and wind patterns. Historical data places average April 5 highs near 15°C with high day-to-day variability from jet stream shifts. KMA daily briefings and model updates through April 4 will clarify intensification risks or cooling scenarios driving trader repositioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
音量
$5終了日
2026/04/05マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket shows even market-implied probabilities across outcomes from 6°C or below to 16°C or higher for Seoul's highest temperature on April 5, highlighting genuine uncertainty typical of early spring transitions. Korea Meteorological Administration medium-range outlooks project highs of 17–21°C through early April amid retreating Siberian highs and southerly flows, yet ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF diverge by 5–10°C due to potential cold fronts or stalled highs influencing cloud cover and wind patterns. Historical data places average April 5 highs near 15°C with high day-to-day variability from jet stream shifts. KMA daily briefings and model updates through April 4 will clarify intensification risks or cooling scenarios driving trader repositioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$5終了日
2026/04/05マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket shows even market-implied probabilities across outcomes from 6°C or below to 16°C or higher for Seoul's highest temperature on April 5, highlighting genuine uncertainty typical of early spring transitions. Korea Meteorological Administration medium-range outlooks project highs of 17–21°C through early April amid retreating Siberian highs and southerly flows, yet ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF diverge by 5–10°C due to potential cold fronts or stalled highs influencing cloud cover and wind patterns. Historical data places average April 5 highs near 15°C with high day-to-day variability from jet stream shifts. KMA daily briefings and model updates through April 4 will clarify intensification risks or cooling scenarios driving trader repositioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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