Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 46.5% chance of 78°F or higher in San Francisco on April 5, driven by National Weather Service forecasts showing a building upper-level ridge bringing sunny skies and above-normal temperatures following recent rain and the hottest March on record for the Bay Area. After cool, showery conditions this week with highs near 60-65°F, model runs from GFS and ECMWF project highs in the mid-to-upper 70s at San Francisco International Airport (SFO)—the market's resolution station—due to offshore flow weakening the persistent marine layer and enhanced subsidence. April climatology averages 64°F highs, but historical analogs support 78°F+ on 10-15% of days amid similar high-pressure setups; uncertainty remains from potential stratus clouds or gusty winds, with updated NOAA guidance expected April 3-4.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 5?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 5?
78°F or higher 47%
76-77°F 23%
74-75°F 22%
72-73°F 11%
新規
新規
2026/04/05
59°F or below
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
3%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
8%
72-73°F
11%
74-75°F
22%
76-77°F
23%
78°F or higher
47%
78°F or higher 47%
76-77°F 23%
74-75°F 22%
72-73°F 11%
新規
新規
2026/04/05
59°F or below
$312 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$167 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$192 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$305 Vol.
1%
66-67°F
$49 Vol.
3%
68-69°F
$41 Vol.
3%
70-71°F
$29 Vol.
8%
72-73°F
$38 Vol.
11%
74-75°F
$55 Vol.
22%
76-77°F
$71 Vol.
23%
78°F or higher
$202 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 46.5% chance of 78°F or higher in San Francisco on April 5, driven by National Weather Service forecasts showing a building upper-level ridge bringing sunny skies and above-normal temperatures following recent rain and the hottest March on record for the Bay Area. After cool, showery conditions this week with highs near 60-65°F, model runs from GFS and ECMWF project highs in the mid-to-upper 70s at San Francisco International Airport (SFO)—the market's resolution station—due to offshore flow weakening the persistent marine layer and enhanced subsidence. April climatology averages 64°F highs, but historical analogs support 78°F+ on 10-15% of days amid similar high-pressure setups; uncertainty remains from potential stratus clouds or gusty winds, with updated NOAA guidance expected April 3-4.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 1, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
音量
$1,462終了日
2026/04/05マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 6:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 46.5% chance of 78°F or higher in San Francisco on April 5, driven by National Weather Service forecasts showing a building upper-level ridge bringing sunny skies and above-normal temperatures following recent rain and the hottest March on record for the Bay Area. After cool, showery conditions this week with highs near 60-65°F, model runs from GFS and ECMWF project highs in the mid-to-upper 70s at San Francisco International Airport (SFO)—the market's resolution station—due to offshore flow weakening the persistent marine layer and enhanced subsidence. April climatology averages 64°F highs, but historical analogs support 78°F+ on 10-15% of days amid similar high-pressure setups; uncertainty remains from potential stratus clouds or gusty winds, with updated NOAA guidance expected April 3-4.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$1,462終了日
2026/04/05マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 6:30 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket implies a 46.5% chance of 78°F or higher in San Francisco on April 5, driven by National Weather Service forecasts showing a building upper-level ridge bringing sunny skies and above-normal temperatures following recent rain and the hottest March on record for the Bay Area. After cool, showery conditions this week with highs near 60-65°F, model runs from GFS and ECMWF project highs in the mid-to-upper 70s at San Francisco International Airport (SFO)—the market's resolution station—due to offshore flow weakening the persistent marine layer and enhanced subsidence. April climatology averages 64°F highs, but historical analogs support 78°F+ on 10-15% of days amid similar high-pressure setups; uncertainty remains from potential stratus clouds or gusty winds, with updated NOAA guidance expected April 3-4.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問