Trader consensus on Polymarket's closely matched leading outcomes—70-71°F (25.5%), 68-69°F (24.0%), and 72°F or higher (21.5%)—reflects National Weather Service model ensembles projecting San Francisco's April 3 high in the upper 60s to low 70s amid a rapid post-frontal warmup. A trough bringing rain and cooler temperatures (upper 50s to mid-60s) on April 1-2 will depart, allowing an offshore high-pressure ridge to rebuild and promote subsidence warming with lighter onshore flow. Key differentiators include marine layer persistence, which could cap highs at 68-69°F if stratus lingers, versus early burn-off enabling 72°F+ under sunnier skies and northerly winds. GFS runs trend warmer than ECMWF; watch 00Z/12Z updates and NWS Bay Area forecast discussions for refinements ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 3?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 3?
70-71°F 25%
68-69°F 24%
72°F or higher 23%
66-67°F 20%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
53°F or below
1%
54-55°F
1%
56-57°F
5%
58-59°F
10%
60-61°F
9%
62-63°F
14%
64-65°F
18%
66-67°F
20%
68-69°F
24%
70-71°F
25%
72°F or higher
23%
70-71°F 25%
68-69°F 24%
72°F or higher 23%
66-67°F 20%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
53°F or below
$280 Vol.
1%
54-55°F
$387 Vol.
1%
56-57°F
$31 Vol.
5%
58-59°F
$50 Vol.
10%
60-61°F
$2 Vol.
9%
62-63°F
$2 Vol.
14%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
18%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
20%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
24%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
25%
72°F or higher
$0 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket's closely matched leading outcomes—70-71°F (25.5%), 68-69°F (24.0%), and 72°F or higher (21.5%)—reflects National Weather Service model ensembles projecting San Francisco's April 3 high in the upper 60s to low 70s amid a rapid post-frontal warmup. A trough bringing rain and cooler temperatures (upper 50s to mid-60s) on April 1-2 will depart, allowing an offshore high-pressure ridge to rebuild and promote subsidence warming with lighter onshore flow. Key differentiators include marine layer persistence, which could cap highs at 68-69°F if stratus lingers, versus early burn-off enabling 72°F+ under sunnier skies and northerly winds. GFS runs trend warmer than ECMWF; watch 00Z/12Z updates and NWS Bay Area forecast discussions for refinements ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 29, 2026, 3:35 PM ET
音量
$752終了日
Apr 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 3:35 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket's closely matched leading outcomes—70-71°F (25.5%), 68-69°F (24.0%), and 72°F or higher (21.5%)—reflects National Weather Service model ensembles projecting San Francisco's April 3 high in the upper 60s to low 70s amid a rapid post-frontal warmup. A trough bringing rain and cooler temperatures (upper 50s to mid-60s) on April 1-2 will depart, allowing an offshore high-pressure ridge to rebuild and promote subsidence warming with lighter onshore flow. Key differentiators include marine layer persistence, which could cap highs at 68-69°F if stratus lingers, versus early burn-off enabling 72°F+ under sunnier skies and northerly winds. GFS runs trend warmer than ECMWF; watch 00Z/12Z updates and NWS Bay Area forecast discussions for refinements ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$752終了日
Apr 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 3:35 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket's closely matched leading outcomes—70-71°F (25.5%), 68-69°F (24.0%), and 72°F or higher (21.5%)—reflects National Weather Service model ensembles projecting San Francisco's April 3 high in the upper 60s to low 70s amid a rapid post-frontal warmup. A trough bringing rain and cooler temperatures (upper 50s to mid-60s) on April 1-2 will depart, allowing an offshore high-pressure ridge to rebuild and promote subsidence warming with lighter onshore flow. Key differentiators include marine layer persistence, which could cap highs at 68-69°F if stratus lingers, versus early burn-off enabling 72°F+ under sunnier skies and northerly winds. GFS runs trend warmer than ECMWF; watch 00Z/12Z updates and NWS Bay Area forecast discussions for refinements ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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