Hong Kong Observatory's automatic weather station network recorded a peak temperature of exactly 28°C across Hong Kong on March 30, 2026, driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for this outcome amid real-money positioning. Verified observations from multiple stations, despite an amber rainstorm signal and thunderstorms from a low-pressure trough limiting prolonged sunshine, confirm this maximum during scattered sunny intervals—above the March climatological mean of around 22°C and consistent with the Observatory's spring forecast for normal to above-normal temperatures following a record-warm winter. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty include an ultra-rare data audit or station recalibration by the Observatory, though daily records are finalized post-quality checks with negligible revision risk.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Hong Kong on March 30?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on March 30?
28°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$242,435 Vol.
$242,435 Vol.
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$242,435 Vol.
$242,435 Vol.
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 29, 2026, 3:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Hong Kong Observatory's automatic weather station network recorded a peak temperature of exactly 28°C across Hong Kong on March 30, 2026, driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for this outcome amid real-money positioning. Verified observations from multiple stations, despite an amber rainstorm signal and thunderstorms from a low-pressure trough limiting prolonged sunshine, confirm this maximum during scattered sunny intervals—above the March climatological mean of around 22°C and consistent with the Observatory's spring forecast for normal to above-normal temperatures following a record-warm winter. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty include an ultra-rare data audit or station recalibration by the Observatory, though daily records are finalized post-quality checks with negligible revision risk.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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