Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects ensemble forecast means from INMET guidance and global models like GFS and ECMWF, projecting São Paulo's highest temperature on April 1 near 26°C amid the seasonal autumn transition, with 26°C slightly favored at 29.5% implied probability. Differentiating factors include afternoon convective cloud development suppressing peaks at 25°C versus clearer skies and urban heat island amplification pushing toward 27°C or 28°C, modulated by southerly sea breeze strength. Historical early-April averages hover at 26°C, following March's variable warmth from passing fronts. Inherent short-range uncertainty persists; watch INMET's morning update and 12z ECMWF run for refinements ahead of resolution via official station data.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 1?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 1?
26°C 30%
27°C 23%
25°C 21%
28°C 15%
新規
$12,115 Vol.
新規
$12,115 Vol.
2026/04/01
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
10%
25°C
21%
26°C
30%
27°C
23%
28°C
15%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
2%
26°C 30%
27°C 23%
25°C 21%
28°C 15%
新規
$12,115 Vol.
新規
$12,115 Vol.
2026/04/01
20°C or below
$780 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$640 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$699 Vol.
1%
23°C
$969 Vol.
2%
24°C
$854 Vol.
10%
25°C
$707 Vol.
21%
26°C
$810 Vol.
30%
27°C
$926 Vol.
23%
28°C
$1,334 Vol.
15%
29°C
$1,089 Vol.
1%
30°C or higher
$3,309 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects ensemble forecast means from INMET guidance and global models like GFS and ECMWF, projecting São Paulo's highest temperature on April 1 near 26°C amid the seasonal autumn transition, with 26°C slightly favored at 29.5% implied probability. Differentiating factors include afternoon convective cloud development suppressing peaks at 25°C versus clearer skies and urban heat island amplification pushing toward 27°C or 28°C, modulated by southerly sea breeze strength. Historical early-April averages hover at 26°C, following March's variable warmth from passing fronts. Inherent short-range uncertainty persists; watch INMET's morning update and 12z ECMWF run for refinements ahead of resolution via official station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 29, 2026, 2:40 PM ET
音量
$12,115終了日
2026/04/01マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 2:40 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects ensemble forecast means from INMET guidance and global models like GFS and ECMWF, projecting São Paulo's highest temperature on April 1 near 26°C amid the seasonal autumn transition, with 26°C slightly favored at 29.5% implied probability. Differentiating factors include afternoon convective cloud development suppressing peaks at 25°C versus clearer skies and urban heat island amplification pushing toward 27°C or 28°C, modulated by southerly sea breeze strength. Historical early-April averages hover at 26°C, following March's variable warmth from passing fronts. Inherent short-range uncertainty persists; watch INMET's morning update and 12z ECMWF run for refinements ahead of resolution via official station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$12,115終了日
2026/04/01マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 2:40 PM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects ensemble forecast means from INMET guidance and global models like GFS and ECMWF, projecting São Paulo's highest temperature on April 1 near 26°C amid the seasonal autumn transition, with 26°C slightly favored at 29.5% implied probability. Differentiating factors include afternoon convective cloud development suppressing peaks at 25°C versus clearer skies and urban heat island amplification pushing toward 27°C or 28°C, modulated by southerly sea breeze strength. Historical early-April averages hover at 26°C, following March's variable warmth from passing fronts. Inherent short-range uncertainty persists; watch INMET's morning update and 12z ECMWF run for refinements ahead of resolution via official station data.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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