Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model outputs from GFS and ECMWF project Houston's April 3 high temperature near 85°F, driving trader consensus toward the closely matched 84-85°F (27%) and 86-87°F (27%) outcomes amid a persistent upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and sunny skies. This warm bias stems from recent March 27 highs reaching 86°F, with minimal cool air intrusions forecast; lower probabilities for 78-83°F ranges reflect subdued rain chances mid-week. Differentiating factors include model spread—GFS runs trending 1-2°F warmer than ECMWF due to sharper ridging—and potential for variable afternoon cloudiness or light southerly winds enhancing sea-breeze moderation. New 00z/12z runs expected within 24 hours could refine this uncertainty before resolution at official observing stations like IAH.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Houston on April 3?
Highest temperature in Houston on April 3?
84-85°F 27%
86-87°F 27%
80-81°F 20%
88-89°F 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
73°F or below
7%
74-75°F
15%
76-77°F
15%
78-79°F
9%
80-81°F
20%
82-83°F
17%
84-85°F
27%
86-87°F
27%
88-89°F
18%
90-91°F
10%
92°F or higher
9%
84-85°F 27%
86-87°F 27%
80-81°F 20%
88-89°F 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
73°F or below
$16 Vol.
7%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
15%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
15%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
9%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
20%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
17%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
27%
86-87°F
$25 Vol.
27%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
18%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
10%
92°F or higher
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model outputs from GFS and ECMWF project Houston's April 3 high temperature near 85°F, driving trader consensus toward the closely matched 84-85°F (27%) and 86-87°F (27%) outcomes amid a persistent upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and sunny skies. This warm bias stems from recent March 27 highs reaching 86°F, with minimal cool air intrusions forecast; lower probabilities for 78-83°F ranges reflect subdued rain chances mid-week. Differentiating factors include model spread—GFS runs trending 1-2°F warmer than ECMWF due to sharper ridging—and potential for variable afternoon cloudiness or light southerly winds enhancing sea-breeze moderation. New 00z/12z runs expected within 24 hours could refine this uncertainty before resolution at official observing stations like IAH.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 29, 2026, 4:00 PM ET
音量
$41終了日
Apr 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 4:00 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model outputs from GFS and ECMWF project Houston's April 3 high temperature near 85°F, driving trader consensus toward the closely matched 84-85°F (27%) and 86-87°F (27%) outcomes amid a persistent upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and sunny skies. This warm bias stems from recent March 27 highs reaching 86°F, with minimal cool air intrusions forecast; lower probabilities for 78-83°F ranges reflect subdued rain chances mid-week. Differentiating factors include model spread—GFS runs trending 1-2°F warmer than ECMWF due to sharper ridging—and potential for variable afternoon cloudiness or light southerly winds enhancing sea-breeze moderation. New 00z/12z runs expected within 24 hours could refine this uncertainty before resolution at official observing stations like IAH.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$41終了日
Apr 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 4:00 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model outputs from GFS and ECMWF project Houston's April 3 high temperature near 85°F, driving trader consensus toward the closely matched 84-85°F (27%) and 86-87°F (27%) outcomes amid a persistent upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and sunny skies. This warm bias stems from recent March 27 highs reaching 86°F, with minimal cool air intrusions forecast; lower probabilities for 78-83°F ranges reflect subdued rain chances mid-week. Differentiating factors include model spread—GFS runs trending 1-2°F warmer than ECMWF due to sharper ridging—and potential for variable afternoon cloudiness or light southerly winds enhancing sea-breeze moderation. New 00z/12z runs expected within 24 hours could refine this uncertainty before resolution at official observing stations like IAH.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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