Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Moscow's highest temperature on April 2, with ECMWF and GFS ensemble models clustering implied peaks around 8–12°C near the early April climatological average of 9°C from Rosgidromet data. The slight edge to 12°C or higher (42.5%) stems from optimistic model members showing southerly flows and above-normal temperature anomalies persisting from late March, potentially limiting cloud cover and boosting daytime heating. Cooler bids at 6–10°C (40–42%) account for ensemble spread including overcast skies, light rain risks, and possible northerly wind shifts that cap highs below 10°C. Daily updates from NOAA, ECMWF, and Russian Hydrometcenter through April 1 will sharpen resolution based on official VDNKh station measurements.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Moscow on April 2?
Highest temperature in Moscow on April 2?
10°C 42%
9°C 41%
8°C 41%
11°C 24%
NEW
NEW
Apr 2, 2026
2°C or below
3%
3°C
2%
4°C
41%
5°C
1%
6°C
41%
7°C
2%
8°C
41%
9°C
41%
10°C
42%
11°C
24%
12°C or higher
43%
10°C 42%
9°C 41%
8°C 41%
11°C 24%
NEW
NEW
Apr 2, 2026
2°C or below
$5 Vol.
3%
3°C
$115 Vol.
2%
4°C
$179 Vol.
41%
5°C
$70 Vol.
1%
6°C
$50 Vol.
41%
7°C
$5 Vol.
2%
8°C
$0 Vol.
41%
9°C
$0 Vol.
41%
10°C
$0 Vol.
42%
11°C
$0 Vol.
24%
12°C or higher
$6 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Moscow's highest temperature on April 2, with ECMWF and GFS ensemble models clustering implied peaks around 8–12°C near the early April climatological average of 9°C from Rosgidromet data. The slight edge to 12°C or higher (42.5%) stems from optimistic model members showing southerly flows and above-normal temperature anomalies persisting from late March, potentially limiting cloud cover and boosting daytime heating. Cooler bids at 6–10°C (40–42%) account for ensemble spread including overcast skies, light rain risks, and possible northerly wind shifts that cap highs below 10°C. Daily updates from NOAA, ECMWF, and Russian Hydrometcenter through April 1 will sharpen resolution based on official VDNKh station measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 29, 2026, 4:25 PM ET
音量
$430終了日
Apr 2, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 4:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Moscow's highest temperature on April 2, with ECMWF and GFS ensemble models clustering implied peaks around 8–12°C near the early April climatological average of 9°C from Rosgidromet data. The slight edge to 12°C or higher (42.5%) stems from optimistic model members showing southerly flows and above-normal temperature anomalies persisting from late March, potentially limiting cloud cover and boosting daytime heating. Cooler bids at 6–10°C (40–42%) account for ensemble spread including overcast skies, light rain risks, and possible northerly wind shifts that cap highs below 10°C. Daily updates from NOAA, ECMWF, and Russian Hydrometcenter through April 1 will sharpen resolution based on official VDNKh station measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$430終了日
Apr 2, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 4:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Moscow's highest temperature on April 2, with ECMWF and GFS ensemble models clustering implied peaks around 8–12°C near the early April climatological average of 9°C from Rosgidromet data. The slight edge to 12°C or higher (42.5%) stems from optimistic model members showing southerly flows and above-normal temperature anomalies persisting from late March, potentially limiting cloud cover and boosting daytime heating. Cooler bids at 6–10°C (40–42%) account for ensemble spread including overcast skies, light rain risks, and possible northerly wind shifts that cap highs below 10°C. Daily updates from NOAA, ECMWF, and Russian Hydrometcenter through April 1 will sharpen resolution based on official VDNKh station measurements.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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