Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 12°C or higher in Moscow on March 30, with 98.5% implied probability, driven by authoritative forecast consensus from Yandex Weather, AccuWeather, and ECMWF/GFS model ensembles projecting daytime peaks of 14–16°C amid clear skies and mild southerly airflow. Current midday observations already exceed 10°C, reinforcing this positioning under a persistent high-pressure ridge over European Russia that has delivered above-normal spring warmth, well beyond March climatological averages of 2–5°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected thickening cloud cover or a sudden northerly wind shift, though ensemble spreads indicate less than 2% chance of sub-12°C maxima; final Roshydromet measurements will resolve by evening.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Moscow on March 30?
Highest temperature in Moscow on March 30?
12°C or higher 98.5%
11°C 1.6%
10°C 1.2%
NEW
$17,019 Vol.
NEW
$17,019 Vol.
Mar 30, 2026
10°C
1%
11°C
2%
12°C or higher
99%
12°C or higher 98.5%
11°C 1.6%
10°C 1.2%
NEW
$17,019 Vol.
NEW
$17,019 Vol.
Mar 30, 2026
10°C
$3,552 Vol.
1%
11°C
$349 Vol.
2%
12°C or higher
$1,272 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 12°C or higher in Moscow on March 30, with 98.5% implied probability, driven by authoritative forecast consensus from Yandex Weather, AccuWeather, and ECMWF/GFS model ensembles projecting daytime peaks of 14–16°C amid clear skies and mild southerly airflow. Current midday observations already exceed 10°C, reinforcing this positioning under a persistent high-pressure ridge over European Russia that has delivered above-normal spring warmth, well beyond March climatological averages of 2–5°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected thickening cloud cover or a sudden northerly wind shift, though ensemble spreads indicate less than 2% chance of sub-12°C maxima; final Roshydromet measurements will resolve by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 29, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
音量
$17,019終了日
Mar 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 12°C or higher in Moscow on March 30, with 98.5% implied probability, driven by authoritative forecast consensus from Yandex Weather, AccuWeather, and ECMWF/GFS model ensembles projecting daytime peaks of 14–16°C amid clear skies and mild southerly airflow. Current midday observations already exceed 10°C, reinforcing this positioning under a persistent high-pressure ridge over European Russia that has delivered above-normal spring warmth, well beyond March climatological averages of 2–5°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected thickening cloud cover or a sudden northerly wind shift, though ensemble spreads indicate less than 2% chance of sub-12°C maxima; final Roshydromet measurements will resolve by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$17,019終了日
Mar 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 12°C or higher in Moscow on March 30, with 98.5% implied probability, driven by authoritative forecast consensus from Yandex Weather, AccuWeather, and ECMWF/GFS model ensembles projecting daytime peaks of 14–16°C amid clear skies and mild southerly airflow. Current midday observations already exceed 10°C, reinforcing this positioning under a persistent high-pressure ridge over European Russia that has delivered above-normal spring warmth, well beyond March climatological averages of 2–5°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected thickening cloud cover or a sudden northerly wind shift, though ensemble spreads indicate less than 2% chance of sub-12°C maxima; final Roshydromet measurements will resolve by evening.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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