Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 17°C or higher (68.5% implied probability) for Moscow's highest temperature on April 1, driven by persistent warm anomalies from Russia's record-hot March 2026, as forecasted by the Hydrometeorological Center, Gismeteo, and AccuWeather models projecting daytime highs of 16-18°C under high-pressure ridging and southerly winds. Recent observations show March 30 highs near 17°C with partly cloudy skies, elevating confidence in continued mild conditions despite typical early-April averages of 9-10°C. Lower probabilities for mid-teens (15-16°C around 41%) and cooler outcomes (e.g., 8°C at 40.5%) reflect model agreement on above-normal temperatures, though daily updates from ECMWF and GFS ensembles could adjust for any cold air intrusions; resolution hinges on official Vnukovo Airport measurements.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Moscow on April 1?
Highest temperature in Moscow on April 1?
17°C or higher 54%
14°C 47%
15°C 41%
8°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Apr 1, 2026
7°C or below
3%
8°C
40%
9°C
40%
10°C
39%
11°C
39%
12°C
40%
13°C
40%
14°C
47%
15°C
41%
16°C
39%
17°C or higher
69%
17°C or higher 54%
14°C 47%
15°C 41%
8°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Apr 1, 2026
7°C or below
$150 Vol.
3%
8°C
$0 Vol.
40%
9°C
$0 Vol.
40%
10°C
$0 Vol.
39%
11°C
$0 Vol.
39%
12°C
$0 Vol.
40%
13°C
$0 Vol.
40%
14°C
$4 Vol.
47%
15°C
$0 Vol.
41%
16°C
$0 Vol.
39%
17°C or higher
$133 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 17°C or higher (68.5% implied probability) for Moscow's highest temperature on April 1, driven by persistent warm anomalies from Russia's record-hot March 2026, as forecasted by the Hydrometeorological Center, Gismeteo, and AccuWeather models projecting daytime highs of 16-18°C under high-pressure ridging and southerly winds. Recent observations show March 30 highs near 17°C with partly cloudy skies, elevating confidence in continued mild conditions despite typical early-April averages of 9-10°C. Lower probabilities for mid-teens (15-16°C around 41%) and cooler outcomes (e.g., 8°C at 40.5%) reflect model agreement on above-normal temperatures, though daily updates from ECMWF and GFS ensembles could adjust for any cold air intrusions; resolution hinges on official Vnukovo Airport measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 29, 2026, 4:25 PM ET
音量
$287終了日
Apr 1, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 4:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 17°C or higher (68.5% implied probability) for Moscow's highest temperature on April 1, driven by persistent warm anomalies from Russia's record-hot March 2026, as forecasted by the Hydrometeorological Center, Gismeteo, and AccuWeather models projecting daytime highs of 16-18°C under high-pressure ridging and southerly winds. Recent observations show March 30 highs near 17°C with partly cloudy skies, elevating confidence in continued mild conditions despite typical early-April averages of 9-10°C. Lower probabilities for mid-teens (15-16°C around 41%) and cooler outcomes (e.g., 8°C at 40.5%) reflect model agreement on above-normal temperatures, though daily updates from ECMWF and GFS ensembles could adjust for any cold air intrusions; resolution hinges on official Vnukovo Airport measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$287終了日
Apr 1, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 4:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 17°C or higher (68.5% implied probability) for Moscow's highest temperature on April 1, driven by persistent warm anomalies from Russia's record-hot March 2026, as forecasted by the Hydrometeorological Center, Gismeteo, and AccuWeather models projecting daytime highs of 16-18°C under high-pressure ridging and southerly winds. Recent observations show March 30 highs near 17°C with partly cloudy skies, elevating confidence in continued mild conditions despite typical early-April averages of 9-10°C. Lower probabilities for mid-teens (15-16°C around 41%) and cooler outcomes (e.g., 8°C at 40.5%) reflect model agreement on above-normal temperatures, though daily updates from ECMWF and GFS ensembles could adjust for any cold air intrusions; resolution hinges on official Vnukovo Airport measurements.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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