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Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 4?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 4?

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

26°C 24%

29°C or higher 22%

25°C 22%

27°C 22%

Polymarket
NEW

26°C 24%

29°C or higher 22%

25°C 22%

27°C 22%

Polymarket
NEW

19°C or below

$342 Vol.

1%

20°C

$525 Vol.

2%

21°C

$79 Vol.

3%

22°C

$11 Vol.

7%

23°C

$0 Vol.

9%

24°C

$0 Vol.

12%

25°C

$0 Vol.

22%

26°C

$0 Vol.

24%

27°C

$0 Vol.

22%

28°C

$0 Vol.

17%

29°C or higher

$100 Vol.

22%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Hong Kong Observatory's latest 9-day forecast, updated March 30, projects a high near 27°C on April 4 amid cloudy skies, showers, and thunderstorms from a trough of low pressure over southern China, tempering trader consensus toward mid-to-high 20s outcomes like 26°C (23.5% implied probability) and 27°C (21%). Yet, 29°C or higher leads at 29.5% due to spring's normal-to-above-normal temperature outlook, recent 28°C peak on March 30, and potential for sunny breaks boosting solar heating. Model uncertainty stems from cloud cover variability and shower timing, with historical April averages around 25°C but climatological warming trends adding upside risk. Daily updates through April 1's monthly forecast will refine resolution based on King's Park observations.

The Hong Kong Observatory's latest 9-day forecast, updated March 30, projects a high near 27°C on April 4 amid cloudy skies, showers, and thunderstorms from a trough of low pressure over southern China, tempering trader consensus toward mid-to-high 20s outcomes like 26°C (23.5% implied probability) and 27°C (21%). Yet, 29°C or higher leads at 29.5% due to spring's normal-to-above-normal temperature outlook, recent 28°C peak on March 30, and potential for sunny breaks boosting solar heating. Model uncertainty stems from cloud cover variability and shower timing, with historical April averages around 25°C but climatological warming trends adding upside risk. Daily updates through April 1's monthly forecast will refine resolution based on King's Park observations.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Hong Kong Observatory's latest 9-day forecast, updated March 30, projects a high near 27°C on April 4 amid cloudy skies, showers, and thunderstorms from a trough of low pressure over southern China, tempering trader consensus toward mid-to-high 20s outcomes like 26°C (23.5% implied probability) and 27°C (21%). Yet, 29°C or higher leads at 29.5% due to spring's normal-to-above-normal temperature outlook, recent 28°C peak on March 30, and potential for sunny breaks boosting solar heating. Model uncertainty stems from cloud cover variability and shower timing, with historical April averages around 25°C but climatological warming trends adding upside risk. Daily updates through April 1's monthly forecast will refine resolution based on King's Park observations.

The Hong Kong Observatory's latest 9-day forecast, updated March 30, projects a high near 27°C on April 4 amid cloudy skies, showers, and thunderstorms from a trough of low pressure over southern China, tempering trader consensus toward mid-to-high 20s outcomes like 26°C (23.5% implied probability) and 27°C (21%). Yet, 29°C or higher leads at 29.5% due to spring's normal-to-above-normal temperature outlook, recent 28°C peak on March 30, and potential for sunny breaks boosting solar heating. Model uncertainty stems from cloud cover variability and shower timing, with historical April averages around 25°C but climatological warming trends adding upside risk. Daily updates through April 1's monthly forecast will refine resolution based on King's Park observations.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 4?」はPolymarket上の11個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「26°C」で24%、次いで「25°C」が22%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、24¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に24%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 4?」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Mar 29, 2026開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 4?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている11個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 4?」の現在のフロントランナーは「26°C」で24%であり、市場がこの結果に24%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「25°C」で22%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 4?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。