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Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 1?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 1?

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

26°C 38%

28°C 34%

27°C 23%

25°C 20%

Polymarket
NEW

26°C 38%

28°C 34%

27°C 23%

25°C 20%

Polymarket
NEW

21°C or below

$431 Vol.

3%

22°C

$240 Vol.

3%

23°C

$2 Vol.

6%

24°C

$0 Vol.

11%

25°C

$0 Vol.

20%

26°C

$23 Vol.

24%

27°C

$0 Vol.

23%

28°C

$3 Vol.

19%

29°C

$2 Vol.

12%

30°C

$10 Vol.

11%

31°C or higher

$9 Vol.

9%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast uncertainty for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 1, with implied probabilities clustered around 25–28°C outcomes at 20–24% each and a notable tail toward 31°C or higher at 21.6%, driven by ensemble model projections from regional meteorological services averaging 26–27°C amid variable spring conditions. Early April climatology shows daily highs typically rising from 24°C to 28°C, amplified by Shenzhen's urban heat island effect in a subtropical monsoon climate, while neutral ENSO transition—fading La Niña per NOAA—supports standard warmth without extremes. Key differentiators include potential sea breeze moderation versus high-pressure ridging for hotter scenarios; cloud cover from passing fronts could cap peaks at lower bins. Watch China Meteorological Administration updates and overnight GFS/ECMWF runs for refinements ahead of resolution using official station data.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast uncertainty for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 1, with implied probabilities clustered around 25–28°C outcomes at 20–24% each and a notable tail toward 31°C or higher at 21.6%, driven by ensemble model projections from regional meteorological services averaging 26–27°C amid variable spring conditions. Early April climatology shows daily highs typically rising from 24°C to 28°C, amplified by Shenzhen's urban heat island effect in a subtropical monsoon climate, while neutral ENSO transition—fading La Niña per NOAA—supports standard warmth without extremes. Key differentiators include potential sea breeze moderation versus high-pressure ridging for hotter scenarios; cloud cover from passing fronts could cap peaks at lower bins. Watch China Meteorological Administration updates and overnight GFS/ECMWF runs for refinements ahead of resolution using official station data.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast uncertainty for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 1, with implied probabilities clustered around 25–28°C outcomes at 20–24% each and a notable tail toward 31°C or higher at 21.6%, driven by ensemble model projections from regional meteorological services averaging 26–27°C amid variable spring conditions. Early April climatology shows daily highs typically rising from 24°C to 28°C, amplified by Shenzhen's urban heat island effect in a subtropical monsoon climate, while neutral ENSO transition—fading La Niña per NOAA—supports standard warmth without extremes. Key differentiators include potential sea breeze moderation versus high-pressure ridging for hotter scenarios; cloud cover from passing fronts could cap peaks at lower bins. Watch China Meteorological Administration updates and overnight GFS/ECMWF runs for refinements ahead of resolution using official station data.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast uncertainty for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 1, with implied probabilities clustered around 25–28°C outcomes at 20–24% each and a notable tail toward 31°C or higher at 21.6%, driven by ensemble model projections from regional meteorological services averaging 26–27°C amid variable spring conditions. Early April climatology shows daily highs typically rising from 24°C to 28°C, amplified by Shenzhen's urban heat island effect in a subtropical monsoon climate, while neutral ENSO transition—fading La Niña per NOAA—supports standard warmth without extremes. Key differentiators include potential sea breeze moderation versus high-pressure ridging for hotter scenarios; cloud cover from passing fronts could cap peaks at lower bins. Watch China Meteorological Administration updates and overnight GFS/ECMWF runs for refinements ahead of resolution using official station data.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 1?」はPolymarket上の11個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「26°C」で24%、次いで「27°C」が23%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、24¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に24%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 1?」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Mar 29, 2026開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 1?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている11個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 1?」の現在のフロントランナーは「26°C」で24%であり、市場がこの結果に24%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「27°C」で23%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 1?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。