Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in forecast models for Taipei's highest temperature on April 2, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 25–29°C outcomes due to an approaching frontal system noted by the Central Weather Administration (CWA) as of March 29. Recent warm advection from southerly winds has pushed late-March highs to 26–28°C, supporting elevated odds for 29°C or higher, while increasing cloud cover and moisture ahead of the Tomb Sweeping holiday could suppress daytime heating and favor 24–26°C via reduced insolation. Historical early-April averages hover near 24°C, but model spreads in GFS and ECMWF runs highlight sensitivity to frontal timing; watch CWA's daily updates for resolution-clarifying shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Taipei on April 2?
Highest temperature in Taipei on April 2?
26°C 23%
25°C 22%
24°C 17%
28°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Apr 2, 2026
19°C or below
11%
20°C
5%
21°C
4%
22°C
11%
23°C
17%
24°C
17%
25°C
22%
26°C
23%
27°C
17%
28°C
17%
29°C or higher
15%
26°C 23%
25°C 22%
24°C 17%
28°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Apr 2, 2026
19°C or below
$67 Vol.
11%
20°C
$60 Vol.
5%
21°C
$60 Vol.
4%
22°C
$0 Vol.
11%
23°C
$10 Vol.
17%
24°C
$0 Vol.
17%
25°C
$0 Vol.
22%
26°C
$0 Vol.
23%
27°C
$0 Vol.
17%
28°C
$0 Vol.
17%
29°C or higher
$25 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in forecast models for Taipei's highest temperature on April 2, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 25–29°C outcomes due to an approaching frontal system noted by the Central Weather Administration (CWA) as of March 29. Recent warm advection from southerly winds has pushed late-March highs to 26–28°C, supporting elevated odds for 29°C or higher, while increasing cloud cover and moisture ahead of the Tomb Sweeping holiday could suppress daytime heating and favor 24–26°C via reduced insolation. Historical early-April averages hover near 24°C, but model spreads in GFS and ECMWF runs highlight sensitivity to frontal timing; watch CWA's daily updates for resolution-clarifying shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 29, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
音量
$222終了日
Apr 2, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in forecast models for Taipei's highest temperature on April 2, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 25–29°C outcomes due to an approaching frontal system noted by the Central Weather Administration (CWA) as of March 29. Recent warm advection from southerly winds has pushed late-March highs to 26–28°C, supporting elevated odds for 29°C or higher, while increasing cloud cover and moisture ahead of the Tomb Sweeping holiday could suppress daytime heating and favor 24–26°C via reduced insolation. Historical early-April averages hover near 24°C, but model spreads in GFS and ECMWF runs highlight sensitivity to frontal timing; watch CWA's daily updates for resolution-clarifying shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$222終了日
Apr 2, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in forecast models for Taipei's highest temperature on April 2, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 25–29°C outcomes due to an approaching frontal system noted by the Central Weather Administration (CWA) as of March 29. Recent warm advection from southerly winds has pushed late-March highs to 26–28°C, supporting elevated odds for 29°C or higher, while increasing cloud cover and moisture ahead of the Tomb Sweeping holiday could suppress daytime heating and favor 24–26°C via reduced insolation. Historical early-April averages hover near 24°C, but model spreads in GFS and ECMWF runs highlight sensitivity to frontal timing; watch CWA's daily updates for resolution-clarifying shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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