Latest AEMET forecasts project a 27°C high temperature in Madrid on April 5 under clear skies and northeast winds at 20 km/h, aligning with ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering around 24-27°C due to a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia promoting subsidence and solar heating. Trader consensus reflects this model spread, with implied probabilities tightly matched at 23.5% for 26°C, 22.5% for 24°C, and 20.5% for 25°C, as slight variations in ridge strength, boundary-layer mixing, and transient cloud cover could differentiate outcomes by 1-2°C. Above-normal warmth stems from the anticyclone's suppression of precipitation (0% chance), exceeding April climatological averages of 18°C. New ECMWF runs at 00z/12z and AEMET updates will refine guidance ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Madrid on April 5?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 5?
26°C 23%
24°C 22%
25°C 19%
27°C 14%
新規
新規
2026/04/05
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
5%
23°C
13%
24°C
22%
25°C
19%
26°C
23%
27°C
14%
28°C
6%
29°C or higher
4%
26°C 23%
24°C 22%
25°C 19%
27°C 14%
新規
新規
2026/04/05
19°C or below
$329 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$182 Vol.
1%
21°C
$156 Vol.
1%
22°C
$149 Vol.
5%
23°C
$190 Vol.
13%
24°C
$202 Vol.
22%
25°C
$162 Vol.
19%
26°C
$203 Vol.
23%
27°C
$175 Vol.
14%
28°C
$150 Vol.
6%
29°C or higher
$383 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest AEMET forecasts project a 27°C high temperature in Madrid on April 5 under clear skies and northeast winds at 20 km/h, aligning with ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering around 24-27°C due to a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia promoting subsidence and solar heating. Trader consensus reflects this model spread, with implied probabilities tightly matched at 23.5% for 26°C, 22.5% for 24°C, and 20.5% for 25°C, as slight variations in ridge strength, boundary-layer mixing, and transient cloud cover could differentiate outcomes by 1-2°C. Above-normal warmth stems from the anticyclone's suppression of precipitation (0% chance), exceeding April climatological averages of 18°C. New ECMWF runs at 00z/12z and AEMET updates will refine guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 1, 2026, 6:47 AM ET
音量
$2,279終了日
2026/04/05マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 6:47 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest AEMET forecasts project a 27°C high temperature in Madrid on April 5 under clear skies and northeast winds at 20 km/h, aligning with ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering around 24-27°C due to a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia promoting subsidence and solar heating. Trader consensus reflects this model spread, with implied probabilities tightly matched at 23.5% for 26°C, 22.5% for 24°C, and 20.5% for 25°C, as slight variations in ridge strength, boundary-layer mixing, and transient cloud cover could differentiate outcomes by 1-2°C. Above-normal warmth stems from the anticyclone's suppression of precipitation (0% chance), exceeding April climatological averages of 18°C. New ECMWF runs at 00z/12z and AEMET updates will refine guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$2,279終了日
2026/04/05マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 6:47 AM ETLatest AEMET forecasts project a 27°C high temperature in Madrid on April 5 under clear skies and northeast winds at 20 km/h, aligning with ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering around 24-27°C due to a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia promoting subsidence and solar heating. Trader consensus reflects this model spread, with implied probabilities tightly matched at 23.5% for 26°C, 22.5% for 24°C, and 20.5% for 25°C, as slight variations in ridge strength, boundary-layer mixing, and transient cloud cover could differentiate outcomes by 1-2°C. Above-normal warmth stems from the anticyclone's suppression of precipitation (0% chance), exceeding April climatological averages of 18°C. New ECMWF runs at 00z/12z and AEMET updates will refine guidance ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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