Latest AEMET forecast, updated March 29, projects Madrid's highest temperature on April 3 at 21°C under clear skies with northerly winds at 25 km/h, elevating market-implied odds for 21°C and 22°C to 26% as traders weigh official guidance against ensemble uncertainty. ECMWF and GFS models exhibit a tight spread of 17–25°C, reflecting variability in high-pressure ridge intensification and lingering cloud effects from prior showers, with northerly flow capping peak heating while seasonal outlooks signal above-normal April temperatures across Spain. Historical early-April highs average 17–19°C at Madrid-Barajas station; key differentiators include boundary-layer mixing and urban heat island amplification. Watch tomorrow's model runs for refinements ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Madrid on April 3?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 3?
16°C or below 34%
22°C 20%
20°C 18%
21°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
16°C or below
34%
17°C
17%
18°C
17%
19°C
18%
20°C
18%
21°C
18%
22°C
20%
23°C
17%
24°C
14%
25°C
14%
26°C or higher
7%
16°C or below 34%
22°C 20%
20°C 18%
21°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Vol.
34%
17°C
$0 Vol.
17%
18°C
$0 Vol.
17%
19°C
$0 Vol.
18%
20°C
$0 Vol.
18%
21°C
$0 Vol.
18%
22°C
$0 Vol.
20%
23°C
$0 Vol.
17%
24°C
$0 Vol.
14%
25°C
$0 Vol.
14%
26°C or higher
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest AEMET forecast, updated March 29, projects Madrid's highest temperature on April 3 at 21°C under clear skies with northerly winds at 25 km/h, elevating market-implied odds for 21°C and 22°C to 26% as traders weigh official guidance against ensemble uncertainty. ECMWF and GFS models exhibit a tight spread of 17–25°C, reflecting variability in high-pressure ridge intensification and lingering cloud effects from prior showers, with northerly flow capping peak heating while seasonal outlooks signal above-normal April temperatures across Spain. Historical early-April highs average 17–19°C at Madrid-Barajas station; key differentiators include boundary-layer mixing and urban heat island amplification. Watch tomorrow's model runs for refinements ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 29, 2026, 4:11 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
Apr 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 4:11 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest AEMET forecast, updated March 29, projects Madrid's highest temperature on April 3 at 21°C under clear skies with northerly winds at 25 km/h, elevating market-implied odds for 21°C and 22°C to 26% as traders weigh official guidance against ensemble uncertainty. ECMWF and GFS models exhibit a tight spread of 17–25°C, reflecting variability in high-pressure ridge intensification and lingering cloud effects from prior showers, with northerly flow capping peak heating while seasonal outlooks signal above-normal April temperatures across Spain. Historical early-April highs average 17–19°C at Madrid-Barajas station; key differentiators include boundary-layer mixing and urban heat island amplification. Watch tomorrow's model runs for refinements ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$0終了日
Apr 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 4:11 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest AEMET forecast, updated March 29, projects Madrid's highest temperature on April 3 at 21°C under clear skies with northerly winds at 25 km/h, elevating market-implied odds for 21°C and 22°C to 26% as traders weigh official guidance against ensemble uncertainty. ECMWF and GFS models exhibit a tight spread of 17–25°C, reflecting variability in high-pressure ridge intensification and lingering cloud effects from prior showers, with northerly flow capping peak heating while seasonal outlooks signal above-normal April temperatures across Spain. Historical early-April highs average 17–19°C at Madrid-Barajas station; key differentiators include boundary-layer mixing and urban heat island amplification. Watch tomorrow's model runs for refinements ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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