Latest ensemble forecasts from global models like ECMWF and GFS, alongside commercial outlooks such as AccuWeather (28°C high) and Time and Date (27°C), show Chengdu's April 5 peak temperature clustering tightly around 26–28°C at Shuangliu International Airport, driving trader consensus toward 26°C (28.5% implied probability) and 27°C (29.5%). This reflects a warming trend from southerly winds advecting subtropical air into the Sichuan Basin amid spring conditions warmer than the early-April historical average of 22–24°C, tempered by overcast skies potentially capping insolation. Differentiating factors include model spread on cloud cover extent and timing of maximum heating, with 5% rain chances introducing minor variability. Updated China Meteorological Administration guidance and new model runs expected April 4 could refine the razor-thin 26–27°C split before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 5?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 5?
27°C 29%
26°C 28%
28°C 18%
25°C 12%
新規
新規
2026/04/05
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
5%
24°C
12%
25°C
12%
26°C
28%
27°C
29%
28°C
18%
29°C
8%
30°C or higher
4%
27°C 29%
26°C 28%
28°C 18%
25°C 12%
新規
新規
2026/04/05
20°C or below
$1,013 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,371 Vol.
1%
22°C
$200 Vol.
2%
23°C
$393 Vol.
5%
24°C
$204 Vol.
12%
25°C
$147 Vol.
12%
26°C
$215 Vol.
28%
27°C
$186 Vol.
29%
28°C
$172 Vol.
18%
29°C
$272 Vol.
8%
30°C or higher
$487 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from global models like ECMWF and GFS, alongside commercial outlooks such as AccuWeather (28°C high) and Time and Date (27°C), show Chengdu's April 5 peak temperature clustering tightly around 26–28°C at Shuangliu International Airport, driving trader consensus toward 26°C (28.5% implied probability) and 27°C (29.5%). This reflects a warming trend from southerly winds advecting subtropical air into the Sichuan Basin amid spring conditions warmer than the early-April historical average of 22–24°C, tempered by overcast skies potentially capping insolation. Differentiating factors include model spread on cloud cover extent and timing of maximum heating, with 5% rain chances introducing minor variability. Updated China Meteorological Administration guidance and new model runs expected April 4 could refine the razor-thin 26–27°C split before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 1, 2026, 6:21 AM ET
音量
$4,661終了日
2026/04/05マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 6:21 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from global models like ECMWF and GFS, alongside commercial outlooks such as AccuWeather (28°C high) and Time and Date (27°C), show Chengdu's April 5 peak temperature clustering tightly around 26–28°C at Shuangliu International Airport, driving trader consensus toward 26°C (28.5% implied probability) and 27°C (29.5%). This reflects a warming trend from southerly winds advecting subtropical air into the Sichuan Basin amid spring conditions warmer than the early-April historical average of 22–24°C, tempered by overcast skies potentially capping insolation. Differentiating factors include model spread on cloud cover extent and timing of maximum heating, with 5% rain chances introducing minor variability. Updated China Meteorological Administration guidance and new model runs expected April 4 could refine the razor-thin 26–27°C split before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$4,661終了日
2026/04/05マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 6:21 AM ETLatest ensemble forecasts from global models like ECMWF and GFS, alongside commercial outlooks such as AccuWeather (28°C high) and Time and Date (27°C), show Chengdu's April 5 peak temperature clustering tightly around 26–28°C at Shuangliu International Airport, driving trader consensus toward 26°C (28.5% implied probability) and 27°C (29.5%). This reflects a warming trend from southerly winds advecting subtropical air into the Sichuan Basin amid spring conditions warmer than the early-April historical average of 22–24°C, tempered by overcast skies potentially capping insolation. Differentiating factors include model spread on cloud cover extent and timing of maximum heating, with 5% rain chances introducing minor variability. Updated China Meteorological Administration guidance and new model runs expected April 4 could refine the razor-thin 26–27°C split before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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