Latest Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate a high near 20°C for Tokyo on April 3 under sunny intervals with occasional clouds and 20% precipitation chance, yet market-implied odds cluster tightly around 17°C (30%) and 18°C (29.5%), signaling trader caution amid model divergences like cooler GFS ensemble runs near 17–18°C. This stems from springtime uncertainty in the Kanto region, where variable cloud cover reduces insolation potential, light southerly winds temper advection, and urban heat effects vary; historical early April highs average 17–19°C with daily swings of 2–3°C. Key differentiators include exact high-pressure ridge strength and frontal timing, with JMA updates and ECMWF/GFS refreshes on April 1–2 poised to sharpen consensus before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 3?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 3?
17°C 31%
18°C 30%
19°C 19%
16°C 14%
新規
新規
2026/04/03
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
3%
15°C
5%
16°C
14%
17°C
31%
18°C
30%
19°C
19%
20°C
7%
21°C or higher
12%
17°C 31%
18°C 30%
19°C 19%
16°C 14%
新規
新規
2026/04/03
11°C or below
$316 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$212 Vol.
1%
13°C
$65 Vol.
2%
14°C
$61 Vol.
3%
15°C
$62 Vol.
5%
16°C
$76 Vol.
14%
17°C
$262 Vol.
31%
18°C
$141 Vol.
30%
19°C
$62 Vol.
19%
20°C
$66 Vol.
7%
21°C or higher
$94 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate a high near 20°C for Tokyo on April 3 under sunny intervals with occasional clouds and 20% precipitation chance, yet market-implied odds cluster tightly around 17°C (30%) and 18°C (29.5%), signaling trader caution amid model divergences like cooler GFS ensemble runs near 17–18°C. This stems from springtime uncertainty in the Kanto region, where variable cloud cover reduces insolation potential, light southerly winds temper advection, and urban heat effects vary; historical early April highs average 17–19°C with daily swings of 2–3°C. Key differentiators include exact high-pressure ridge strength and frontal timing, with JMA updates and ECMWF/GFS refreshes on April 1–2 poised to sharpen consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 29, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
音量
$1,418終了日
2026/04/03マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 3:32 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate a high near 20°C for Tokyo on April 3 under sunny intervals with occasional clouds and 20% precipitation chance, yet market-implied odds cluster tightly around 17°C (30%) and 18°C (29.5%), signaling trader caution amid model divergences like cooler GFS ensemble runs near 17–18°C. This stems from springtime uncertainty in the Kanto region, where variable cloud cover reduces insolation potential, light southerly winds temper advection, and urban heat effects vary; historical early April highs average 17–19°C with daily swings of 2–3°C. Key differentiators include exact high-pressure ridge strength and frontal timing, with JMA updates and ECMWF/GFS refreshes on April 1–2 poised to sharpen consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$1,418終了日
2026/04/03マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 3:32 PM ETLatest Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate a high near 20°C for Tokyo on April 3 under sunny intervals with occasional clouds and 20% precipitation chance, yet market-implied odds cluster tightly around 17°C (30%) and 18°C (29.5%), signaling trader caution amid model divergences like cooler GFS ensemble runs near 17–18°C. This stems from springtime uncertainty in the Kanto region, where variable cloud cover reduces insolation potential, light southerly winds temper advection, and urban heat effects vary; historical early April highs average 17–19°C with daily swings of 2–3°C. Key differentiators include exact high-pressure ridge strength and frontal timing, with JMA updates and ECMWF/GFS refreshes on April 1–2 poised to sharpen consensus before resolution.
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