Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in day-three forecasts for Madrid's highest temperature on April 7, with 21°C leading at 28% implied probability, closely followed by 22°C (24%) and 20°C (19.5%), as ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS diverge by 1-2°C around a mean near 21°C. AEMET's latest guidance calls for a 23°C high under clear skies and light easterly winds from a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia, following April's cooler northerly flows after March's anomalous 30°C+ heat. Differentiating factors include potential high-cloud veils curbing insolation, peak heating timing amid lengthening spring days, and Madrid's urban heat island amplification. Daily model updates from AEMET and NOAA will sharpen resolution criteria tied to Retiro station observations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Madrid on April 7?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 7?
21°C 28%
20°C 21%
23°C or higher 20%
22°C 16%
新規
新規
2026/04/07
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
3%
18°C
8%
19°C
19%
20°C
21%
21°C
28%
22°C
16%
23°C or higher
16%
21°C 28%
20°C 21%
23°C or higher 20%
22°C 16%
新規
新規
2026/04/07
13°C or below
$228 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$339 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$185 Vol.
1%
16°C
$139 Vol.
1%
17°C
$49 Vol.
3%
18°C
$112 Vol.
8%
19°C
$181 Vol.
19%
20°C
$123 Vol.
21%
21°C
$132 Vol.
28%
22°C
$68 Vol.
16%
23°C or higher
$129 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in day-three forecasts for Madrid's highest temperature on April 7, with 21°C leading at 28% implied probability, closely followed by 22°C (24%) and 20°C (19.5%), as ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS diverge by 1-2°C around a mean near 21°C. AEMET's latest guidance calls for a 23°C high under clear skies and light easterly winds from a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia, following April's cooler northerly flows after March's anomalous 30°C+ heat. Differentiating factors include potential high-cloud veils curbing insolation, peak heating timing amid lengthening spring days, and Madrid's urban heat island amplification. Daily model updates from AEMET and NOAA will sharpen resolution criteria tied to Retiro station observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 3, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
音量
$1,684終了日
2026/04/07マーケット開始日
Apr 3, 2026, 6:11 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in day-three forecasts for Madrid's highest temperature on April 7, with 21°C leading at 28% implied probability, closely followed by 22°C (24%) and 20°C (19.5%), as ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS diverge by 1-2°C around a mean near 21°C. AEMET's latest guidance calls for a 23°C high under clear skies and light easterly winds from a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia, following April's cooler northerly flows after March's anomalous 30°C+ heat. Differentiating factors include potential high-cloud veils curbing insolation, peak heating timing amid lengthening spring days, and Madrid's urban heat island amplification. Daily model updates from AEMET and NOAA will sharpen resolution criteria tied to Retiro station observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$1,684終了日
2026/04/07マーケット開始日
Apr 3, 2026, 6:11 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in day-three forecasts for Madrid's highest temperature on April 7, with 21°C leading at 28% implied probability, closely followed by 22°C (24%) and 20°C (19.5%), as ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS diverge by 1-2°C around a mean near 21°C. AEMET's latest guidance calls for a 23°C high under clear skies and light easterly winds from a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia, following April's cooler northerly flows after March's anomalous 30°C+ heat. Differentiating factors include potential high-cloud veils curbing insolation, peak heating timing amid lengthening spring days, and Madrid's urban heat island amplification. Daily model updates from AEMET and NOAA will sharpen resolution criteria tied to Retiro station observations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問