Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a high of 20°C at 31% implied probability for Beijing on April 4, mirroring the clustering of ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts around 19–21°C amid early spring mildness. Recent model runs show a warming trend from March 30 highs near 17–19°C, driven by persistent high-pressure ridging over eastern China, though northerly cold air intrusions from Siberia pose downside risks for 17–18°C outcomes (28.5% combined). Upside potential to 22°C+ (11.5%) hinges on clear skies and stronger solar insolation. High uncertainty stems from model spread in upper-level jet positioning and boundary-layer stability; monitor China Meteorological Administration updates and fresh ECMWF/GFS outputs through April 2 for shifts. Historical early-April averages hover near 18°C, underscoring the volatile transition from winter.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Beijing on April 4?
Highest temperature in Beijing on April 4?
20°C 30%
18°C 19%
21°C 19%
19°C 18%
新規
新規
2026/04/04
13°C or below
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
4%
16°C
5%
17°C
12%
18°C
17%
19°C
22%
20°C
30%
21°C
19%
22°C
7%
23°C or higher
7%
20°C 30%
18°C 19%
21°C 19%
19°C 18%
新規
新規
2026/04/04
13°C or below
$697 Vol.
1%
14°C
$204 Vol.
2%
15°C
$101 Vol.
4%
16°C
$95 Vol.
5%
17°C
$90 Vol.
12%
18°C
$100 Vol.
17%
19°C
$144 Vol.
22%
20°C
$123 Vol.
30%
21°C
$108 Vol.
19%
22°C
$93 Vol.
7%
23°C or higher
$160 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a high of 20°C at 31% implied probability for Beijing on April 4, mirroring the clustering of ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts around 19–21°C amid early spring mildness. Recent model runs show a warming trend from March 30 highs near 17–19°C, driven by persistent high-pressure ridging over eastern China, though northerly cold air intrusions from Siberia pose downside risks for 17–18°C outcomes (28.5% combined). Upside potential to 22°C+ (11.5%) hinges on clear skies and stronger solar insolation. High uncertainty stems from model spread in upper-level jet positioning and boundary-layer stability; monitor China Meteorological Administration updates and fresh ECMWF/GFS outputs through April 2 for shifts. Historical early-April averages hover near 18°C, underscoring the volatile transition from winter.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 29, 2026, 4:04 PM ET
音量
$1,916終了日
2026/04/04マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 4:04 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a high of 20°C at 31% implied probability for Beijing on April 4, mirroring the clustering of ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts around 19–21°C amid early spring mildness. Recent model runs show a warming trend from March 30 highs near 17–19°C, driven by persistent high-pressure ridging over eastern China, though northerly cold air intrusions from Siberia pose downside risks for 17–18°C outcomes (28.5% combined). Upside potential to 22°C+ (11.5%) hinges on clear skies and stronger solar insolation. High uncertainty stems from model spread in upper-level jet positioning and boundary-layer stability; monitor China Meteorological Administration updates and fresh ECMWF/GFS outputs through April 2 for shifts. Historical early-April averages hover near 18°C, underscoring the volatile transition from winter.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$1,916終了日
2026/04/04マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 4:04 PM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket favors a high of 20°C at 31% implied probability for Beijing on April 4, mirroring the clustering of ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts around 19–21°C amid early spring mildness. Recent model runs show a warming trend from March 30 highs near 17–19°C, driven by persistent high-pressure ridging over eastern China, though northerly cold air intrusions from Siberia pose downside risks for 17–18°C outcomes (28.5% combined). Upside potential to 22°C+ (11.5%) hinges on clear skies and stronger solar insolation. High uncertainty stems from model spread in upper-level jet positioning and boundary-layer stability; monitor China Meteorological Administration updates and fresh ECMWF/GFS outputs through April 2 for shifts. Historical early-April averages hover near 18°C, underscoring the volatile transition from winter.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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