Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty for Beijing's highest temperature on April 3, with tightly clustered implied probabilities around 16–22°C driven by diverging global forecast models—GFS suggesting peaks near 22–25°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge, while ECMWF ensembles lean cooler amid potential northerly winds. China Meteorological Administration guidance aligns with historical early-April averages of 19°C highs, but spring variability introduces risks of cold air outbreaks or cloud cover suppressing peaks. Weather Underground projects about 19°C with afternoon showers, highlighting 3–5°C spreads in model outputs. Watch daily CMA updates and fresh ECMWF/GFS runs through April 1 for resolution shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Beijing on April 3?
Highest temperature in Beijing on April 3?
22°C 24%
19°C 22%
16°C or below 21%
20°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
16°C or below
21%
17°C
18%
18°C
17%
19°C
22%
20°C
20%
21°C
15%
22°C
24%
23°C
13%
24°C
10%
25°C
17%
26°C or higher
8%
22°C 24%
19°C 22%
16°C or below 21%
20°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
16°C or below
$8 Vol.
21%
17°C
$0 Vol.
18%
18°C
$0 Vol.
17%
19°C
$0 Vol.
22%
20°C
$0 Vol.
20%
21°C
$0 Vol.
15%
22°C
$0 Vol.
24%
23°C
$0 Vol.
13%
24°C
$0 Vol.
10%
25°C
$0 Vol.
17%
26°C or higher
$68 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty for Beijing's highest temperature on April 3, with tightly clustered implied probabilities around 16–22°C driven by diverging global forecast models—GFS suggesting peaks near 22–25°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge, while ECMWF ensembles lean cooler amid potential northerly winds. China Meteorological Administration guidance aligns with historical early-April averages of 19°C highs, but spring variability introduces risks of cold air outbreaks or cloud cover suppressing peaks. Weather Underground projects about 19°C with afternoon showers, highlighting 3–5°C spreads in model outputs. Watch daily CMA updates and fresh ECMWF/GFS runs through April 1 for resolution shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 29, 2026, 3:14 PM ET
音量
$76終了日
Apr 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 3:14 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty for Beijing's highest temperature on April 3, with tightly clustered implied probabilities around 16–22°C driven by diverging global forecast models—GFS suggesting peaks near 22–25°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge, while ECMWF ensembles lean cooler amid potential northerly winds. China Meteorological Administration guidance aligns with historical early-April averages of 19°C highs, but spring variability introduces risks of cold air outbreaks or cloud cover suppressing peaks. Weather Underground projects about 19°C with afternoon showers, highlighting 3–5°C spreads in model outputs. Watch daily CMA updates and fresh ECMWF/GFS runs through April 1 for resolution shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$76終了日
Apr 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 3:14 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty for Beijing's highest temperature on April 3, with tightly clustered implied probabilities around 16–22°C driven by diverging global forecast models—GFS suggesting peaks near 22–25°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge, while ECMWF ensembles lean cooler amid potential northerly winds. China Meteorological Administration guidance aligns with historical early-April averages of 19°C highs, but spring variability introduces risks of cold air outbreaks or cloud cover suppressing peaks. Weather Underground projects about 19°C with afternoon showers, highlighting 3–5°C spreads in model outputs. Watch daily CMA updates and fresh ECMWF/GFS runs through April 1 for resolution shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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