Latest AEMET municipal forecast for Madrid projects a maximum temperature of 28°C on April 6 under clear skies, zero precipitation probability, and light southeast winds at 5 km/h, continuing a warming trend observed with 21.4°C highs at Retiro station on April 3 amid clear conditions and light winds. However, trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 26°C (41.5%) over 27°C (34.5%), driven by ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering in this range, accounting for typical model spreads and airport-specific cooling effects at the resolution station, Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas. Differentiating factors include subtle variations in afternoon solar insolation, potential high cloud intrusions, and boundary-layer mixing under a persistent high-pressure ridge fostering subsidence and warm advection. New model runs and AEMET updates expected overnight could refine these closely matched probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Madrid on April 6?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 6?
26°C 40%
27°C 35%
28°C 10.4%
25°C 7%
$10,946 Vol.
$10,946 Vol.
2026/04/06
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
3%
25°C
7%
26°C
40%
27°C
35%
28°C
10%
29°C or higher
4%
26°C 40%
27°C 35%
28°C 10.4%
25°C 7%
$10,946 Vol.
$10,946 Vol.
2026/04/06
19°C or below
$828 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,620 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,108 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,460 Vol.
1%
23°C
$952 Vol.
1%
24°C
$1,212 Vol.
3%
25°C
$1,188 Vol.
7%
26°C
$798 Vol.
40%
27°C
$798 Vol.
35%
28°C
$550 Vol.
10%
29°C or higher
$442 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest AEMET municipal forecast for Madrid projects a maximum temperature of 28°C on April 6 under clear skies, zero precipitation probability, and light southeast winds at 5 km/h, continuing a warming trend observed with 21.4°C highs at Retiro station on April 3 amid clear conditions and light winds. However, trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 26°C (41.5%) over 27°C (34.5%), driven by ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering in this range, accounting for typical model spreads and airport-specific cooling effects at the resolution station, Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas. Differentiating factors include subtle variations in afternoon solar insolation, potential high cloud intrusions, and boundary-layer mixing under a persistent high-pressure ridge fostering subsidence and warm advection. New model runs and AEMET updates expected overnight could refine these closely matched probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 2, 2026, 6:42 AM ET
音量
$10,946終了日
2026/04/06マーケット開始日
Apr 2, 2026, 6:42 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest AEMET municipal forecast for Madrid projects a maximum temperature of 28°C on April 6 under clear skies, zero precipitation probability, and light southeast winds at 5 km/h, continuing a warming trend observed with 21.4°C highs at Retiro station on April 3 amid clear conditions and light winds. However, trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 26°C (41.5%) over 27°C (34.5%), driven by ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering in this range, accounting for typical model spreads and airport-specific cooling effects at the resolution station, Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas. Differentiating factors include subtle variations in afternoon solar insolation, potential high cloud intrusions, and boundary-layer mixing under a persistent high-pressure ridge fostering subsidence and warm advection. New model runs and AEMET updates expected overnight could refine these closely matched probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$10,946終了日
2026/04/06マーケット開始日
Apr 2, 2026, 6:42 AM ETLatest AEMET municipal forecast for Madrid projects a maximum temperature of 28°C on April 6 under clear skies, zero precipitation probability, and light southeast winds at 5 km/h, continuing a warming trend observed with 21.4°C highs at Retiro station on April 3 amid clear conditions and light winds. However, trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 26°C (41.5%) over 27°C (34.5%), driven by ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering in this range, accounting for typical model spreads and airport-specific cooling effects at the resolution station, Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas. Differentiating factors include subtle variations in afternoon solar insolation, potential high cloud intrusions, and boundary-layer mixing under a persistent high-pressure ridge fostering subsidence and warm advection. New model runs and AEMET updates expected overnight could refine these closely matched probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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