Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast model clustering around 12–13°C for London's highest temperature on April 5, with 13°C leading at 34.5% implied probability amid genuine uncertainty from variable cloud cover and breezy conditions. The Met Office's latest 5-day outlook indicates rain clearing southeastwards through early April, transitioning to brighter spells by Sunday, but patchy low cloud and moderate westerly winds could suppress peaks to 12°C or allow 13–14°C under sunnier scenarios. This aligns with early April climatology—historical highs averaging 13°C at Heathrow—following March's anomalous warmth above 19°C. Ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS show minimal spread, though daily updates may refine odds as the frontal boundary evolves.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in London on April 5?
Highest temperature in London on April 5?
13°C 35%
12°C 29%
14°C 18%
15°C 13%
新規
新規
2026/04/05
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
4%
11°C
8%
12°C
29%
13°C
35%
14°C
18%
15°C
13%
16°C
5%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
1%
13°C 35%
12°C 29%
14°C 18%
15°C 13%
新規
新規
2026/04/05
8°C or below
$403 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$416 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$191 Vol.
4%
11°C
$311 Vol.
8%
12°C
$345 Vol.
29%
13°C
$386 Vol.
35%
14°C
$352 Vol.
18%
15°C
$320 Vol.
13%
16°C
$274 Vol.
5%
17°C
$140 Vol.
1%
18°C or higher
$421 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast model clustering around 12–13°C for London's highest temperature on April 5, with 13°C leading at 34.5% implied probability amid genuine uncertainty from variable cloud cover and breezy conditions. The Met Office's latest 5-day outlook indicates rain clearing southeastwards through early April, transitioning to brighter spells by Sunday, but patchy low cloud and moderate westerly winds could suppress peaks to 12°C or allow 13–14°C under sunnier scenarios. This aligns with early April climatology—historical highs averaging 13°C at Heathrow—following March's anomalous warmth above 19°C. Ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS show minimal spread, though daily updates may refine odds as the frontal boundary evolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 1, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
音量
$3,560終了日
2026/04/05マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 6:01 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast model clustering around 12–13°C for London's highest temperature on April 5, with 13°C leading at 34.5% implied probability amid genuine uncertainty from variable cloud cover and breezy conditions. The Met Office's latest 5-day outlook indicates rain clearing southeastwards through early April, transitioning to brighter spells by Sunday, but patchy low cloud and moderate westerly winds could suppress peaks to 12°C or allow 13–14°C under sunnier scenarios. This aligns with early April climatology—historical highs averaging 13°C at Heathrow—following March's anomalous warmth above 19°C. Ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS show minimal spread, though daily updates may refine odds as the frontal boundary evolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$3,560終了日
2026/04/05マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 6:01 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast model clustering around 12–13°C for London's highest temperature on April 5, with 13°C leading at 34.5% implied probability amid genuine uncertainty from variable cloud cover and breezy conditions. The Met Office's latest 5-day outlook indicates rain clearing southeastwards through early April, transitioning to brighter spells by Sunday, but patchy low cloud and moderate westerly winds could suppress peaks to 12°C or allow 13–14°C under sunnier scenarios. This aligns with early April climatology—historical highs averaging 13°C at Heathrow—following March's anomalous warmth above 19°C. Ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS show minimal spread, though daily updates may refine odds as the frontal boundary evolves.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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